The seasonal influenza transmission dynamic and the correlation analysis with meteorology in Beijing  

作　　者：Lusha Shi Liping Wang Zhen Jin 

机构地区：[1]Compler Systems Research Center,Shanci University Taiyuan 030006,P.R.China [2]Shanci Key Laboratory of Mathematical Techniques and Big Data Analysis on Disease Control and Prevention Shani University,Taiyuan 030006,P.R.China [3]School of Mathematical Sciences,Shanci University Taiyuan 030006,P.R.China [4]Division of Infectious Disease,Key Laboratory of Surveillance and Early Warning on Infectious Disease China Center for Disease Control and Prevention Beijing,P.R.China

出　　处：《International Journal of Biomathematics》2024年第8期1-27,共27页生物数学学报(英文版)

基　　金：supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.12231012,91846302,12101373,61873154);Shanxi Key Laboratory(No.201705D111006);Key R&D projects of Shanxi Province(No.202003D31011/GZ);Health Commission of Shanxi Province(No.2020XM18);Research of Technological Important Programs in the city of Lvliang,China(No.2022GXYF18).

摘　　要：Based on the transmission mechanism of seasonal influenza,this paper establishes a SEIMHRS model with hospital-visiting behavior and periodic transmission rate,and then analyzes the existence and stability of disease-free and endemic periodic solutions theoretically.Taking the epidemic of seasonal infuenza during 2013-2018 in Beijing and conducting parameter estimation,we derive its basic reproduction ratio Ro is 1.0065.Then we concentrate on the correlation between time-varying transmission rate of infuenza and change pattern of three meteorology indices for the first time.The results novelly show that there exists a synchronization phenomenon between the transmission rate and variation pattern of average atmospheric pressure and that there is an anti-synchronism phenomenon between that of the average temperature.Whereas it only shows a normal phase difference with the variation pattern of relative humidity.Finally we advocate emphasis on the effect of variation trend of meteorology on infuenza prediction.

关 键 词：Seasonal influenza change pattern of meteorology periodic transmission rate the basicreproduction rate. 

分 类 号：O175.1[理学—数学]