Dynamic Cost-Benefit Analysis of Digitalization in the Energy Industry  

作　　者：Jose Angel Leiva Vilaplana Guangya Yang Emmanuel Ackom Roberto Monaco Yusheng Xue 

机构地区：[1]Department of Wind and Energy Systems,Technical University of Denmark,Kgs.Lyngby 2800,Denmark [2]Department of Geosciences,College of Arts,Sciences and Engineering,University of North Alabama,Florence,AL 35632,USA [3]Department of Forest Resources Management,Faculty of Forestry,University of British Columbia,Vancouver,BC V6T 1Z4,Canada [4]Department of Technology,Management and Economics,Technical University of Denmark,Kgs.Lyngby 2800,Denmark [5]State Grid Electric Power Research Institute,Nanjing 210037,China

出　　处：《Engineering》2025年第2期174-187,共14页工程(英文)

基　　金：conducted as part of the project Innovative Tools for Cyber-Physical Energy Systems(InnoCyPES);received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation pro-gram under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie(956433).

摘　　要：Assessing the benefits and costs of digitalization in the energy industry is a complex issue.Traditional cost-benefit analysis(CBA)might encounter problems in addressing uncertainties,dynamic stakeholder interactions,and feedback loops arising out of the evolving nature of digitalization.This paper introduces a methodological framework to help address the intricate inter connections between digital applications and business models in the energy industry.The proposed framework leverages system dynamics to achieve two primary objectives.It investigates how digitalization generally influences the value proposi-tion,value capture,and value creation dimensions of business models.It also quantifies the financial and social impacts of digitalization from a dynamic perspective.The proposed dynamic CBA allows for a more precise quantification of the benefits and costs,associated with evidence-based decision-making.Findings from an illustrative case study challenge the static assumptions of conventional methods.These methods often presume continuous operation,neglecting reinvestment and operational feedback loops,and resulting in negative net present values.Conversely,the outcomes of the proposed method indicate positive net present values when accounting for factors such as reinvestment rates and the will-ingness to invest in digitalization projects.The principles outlined in this paper can enable a more accu-rate assessment of digitalization projects,thus catalyzing the development of new CBA applications and guidelines for digitalization.

关 键 词：System dynamics DIGITALIZATION Cost-benefit analysis Energy industry Business modeling Socioeconomic assessment 

分 类 号：F42[经济管理—产业经济]