资本有机构成提高会增加劳动时间吗?——马克思—凯恩斯劳动时间命题的检验  

Does the Increase in the Organic Composition of Capital Extend Working Hours?:A Test of the“Marx-Keynes”Proposition on Working Hours

作　　者：李嘉楠[1,2] 汤胜君 赵书宁 高岭 Li Jianan;Tang Shengjun;Zhao Shuning;Gao Ling(School of Economics,Xiamen University;Department of Economics,Xiamen University;School of Marxism,Nankai University;Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen University)

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院 [2]厦门大学经济学系 [3]南开大学马克思主义学院 [4]中山大学岭南学院

出　　处：《政治经济学评论》2025年第1期199-224,共26页China Review of Political Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新质生产力形成的理论基础、政策体系和实现路径的政治经济学研究”(项目编号:23&ZD070)阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：在经济思想史中,马克思和凯恩斯对技术进步对劳动时间的影响存在着截然不同的看法,前者认为技术进步并不会缩短劳动时间,而后者则乐观地认为技术进步会极大地缩短劳动时间。针对马克思—凯恩斯劳动时间命题,本文基于政治经济学理论进行了分析并使用计量方法加以检验。本文基于中国A股上市公司数据、中国家庭追踪调查数据和人口普查数据,构建了独特的2001—2017年行业劳动时间面板数据,利用2008年金融危机作为需求下降的外生冲击,使用双重差分模型识别了资本有机构成与劳动时间之间的因果关系。实证研究结果表明,资本有机构成越高的行业,在需求下降冲击后,越倾向于增加劳动时间。高资本有机构成行业相对于低资本有机构成行业,劳动时间在金融危机后平均增加了0.8个小时。本文的结果在更换度量指标、排除其他政策干扰和安慰剂检验等一系列检验后保持稳健。本文还进一步发现利润率、市场势力与产业后备军是资本有机构成影响劳动时间的三个机制。本文的实证结果支持马克思的理论假说,而不是凯恩斯的。In the history of economic thought, Marx and Keynes hold fundamentally divergent views on the impact of technological progress on working hours.Marx argues that technological progress does not necessarily reduce working hours, whereas Keynes optimistically contends that it significantly shortens them.This paper examines the“Marx-Keynes”proposition on working hours through theoretical analysis based on political economy and empirical testing using econometric methods.Employing data of China's A-share listed companies, the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) data, and census data, this paper constructs a unique industry-level panel dataset on working hours spanning 2001-2017.Taking the 2008 financial crisis as an exogenous shock to demand, a difference-in-differences model is used to identify the causal relationship between the organic composition of capital and working hours.The empirical results reveal that industries with higher organic compositions of capital are more likely to increase working hours in response to demand shocks.Specifically, in the aftermath of the financial crisis, industries with higher organic compositions of capital experienced an average increase of 0.8 hours in working hours compared to those with lower compositions. These findings remain robust after a series of robustness checks, including alternative measurements, controlling for other policy interventions, and placebo tests. Furthermore, the paper identifies profitability, market power, and the industrial reserve army as three mechanisms through which the organic composition of capital affects working hours. The empirical evidence supports Marx's theoretical hypothesis rather than Keynes'.

关 键 词：资本有机构成 劳动时间 马克思—凯恩斯 技术进步 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：F014.3[经济管理—政治经济学] F014.2