不同气候情景下二色补血草的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of Potential Suitable Areas of Limonium bicolor Under Different Climate Scenarios

作　　者：邱靖茹 吕玉玲 饶鑫媛 刘虎岐[1] QIU Jing-ru;LYU Yu-ling;RAO Xin-yuan;LIU Hu-qi(College of Life Sciences,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China;College of Grassland Agriculture,Northwest A&F University,Yangling 712100,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学生命科学学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]西北农林科技大学草业与草原学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《中药材》2024年第8期1927-1931,共5页Journal of Chinese Medicinal Materials

基　　金：2019年中医药公共卫生服务补助专项“全国中药资源普查项目”(财社[2019]39号)。

摘　　要：目的:预测当前及未来不同气候条件下我国二色补血草的潜在适生区,分析影响二色补血草分布的主要环境因子。方法:搜集并筛选出102个野生二色补血草的分布位点和56个环境因子,利用MaxEnt模型和ArcGIS软件分析,模拟当前以及未来不同时段下的气候条件,测算二色补血草潜在适宜分布区域并进行等级划分。结果:MaxEnt模型重复运行10次,平均AUC值达到0.933,预测可信度较高。当前气候条件下二色补血草总适生区面积约为267.09×10^(4)km^(2),适生区主要分布在我国北方,以内蒙古中部地区为核心向四周呈扩散型分布;在未来气候条件下,二色补血草的生境适宜度将有所降低。结论:该研究对于二色补血草资源的保护区设置、种植基地选址以及栽培管理等工作的开展具有一定的指导意义。Objective:To predict the potential suitable areas of Limonium bicolor under different climatic conditions and analyze the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of Limonium bicolor.Methods:The distribution sites of 102 wild Limonium bicolor and 56 environmental factors were collected and screened.MaxEnt model and ArcGIS analysis were used to simulate the current and future climatic conditions at different time periods,and the potential suitable distribution areas were calculated and classified.Results:The MaxEnt model was repeated for 10 times,and the average AUC value reached 0.933,indicating high prediction reliability.Under the current climate conditions,the total area of the suitable area was about 267.09×10^(4)km^(2),and the suitable area was mainly distributed in the north of China,with the central part of Inner Mongolia as the core.Under future climate conditions,the habitat suitability of Limonium bicolor will be reduced.Conclusion:This study has certain guiding significance for the establishment of the protected area,the location of planting base and the cultivation management of Limonium bicolor.

关 键 词：二色补血草 MaxEnt模型 气候变化 潜在适生区 

分 类 号：R282.71[医药卫生—中药学]