皖北县域“四化”协同发展时空特征及其障碍因子识别  

Spatial-temporal Characteristics and Obstacle Factor Identification of Coordinated Development Among the"Four Modernizations"in Northern Anhui′s Counties

作　　者：张磊 杜明艳 ZHANG Lei;DU Mingyan(School of Architecture and Planning,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230022,China;Anhui Urbanisation Development Research Centre,Hefei 230022,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学建筑与规划学院,安徽合肥230022 [2]安徽省城镇化发展研究中心,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《宿州学院学报》2025年第2期20-26,共7页Journal of Suzhou University

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2020A0459);安徽省住房城乡建设科学技术计划项目(2023-RK039)。

摘　　要：推动“四化”协同发展是实现区域高质量发展的重要途径。以皖北地区40个县域为研究对象,构建“四化”协同发展水平评价指标体系,运用全局空间自相关、耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型等研究方法,对2010—2022年间该地区“四化”协同发展的时空特征、协调水平及障碍因子展开系统分析。研究表明,该地区“四化”协同发展水平逐年上升,皖北地区西部发展水平相对滞后;耦合协调度由失调转向协调,呈现“东高西低,南北持平”的空间格局,东西差距有所减小;“四化”协同发展主要受到农业现代化方面因素制约。基于以上分析,提出优化空间布局、发挥东部地区集聚扩散效应、加大研究与试验发展经费投入、改善水利设施、完善医疗服务体系和提高发明专利成果产出等建议,为皖北地区县域高质量发展提供科学依据。Promoting the coordinated development of the"four modernizations"is a crucial pathway to achieving high-quality regional development.Taking 40 counties in northern Anhui as the research subjects,an evaluation index system for the level of coordinated"four modernizations"development was conducted.By employing research methods such as global spatial autocorrelation,the coupling coordination degree model,and the obstacle degree mo-del,a systematic analysis of the spatiotemporal characteristics,coordination levels,and obstacle factors of the coordinated"four modernizations"development in this region from 2010 to 2022 was conducted.The research findings indicate:first,the level of coordinated"four modernizations"development in this region increased annually,with relatively lagging development in the western part of northern Anhui;second,the coupling coordination degree shifted from imbalance to coordination,exhibiting a spatial pattern of"high in the east,low in the west,and even between the north and south",with the gap between east and west narrowing;third,the coordinated development of the"four modernizations"is primarily constrained by factors related to agricultural modernization.Based on the above analysis,suggestions are proposed,including optimizing spatial layout,leveraging the agglomeration and diffusion effects of the eastern region,increasing financial investment in research and experimental development,improving water conservancy facilities,enhancing the medical service system,and increasing the output of invention patents.These suggestions provide a scientific basis for high-quality development in counties in northern Anhui.

关 键 词：“四化”协同 高质量发展 障碍度模型 皖北县域 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]