交叉口右转机动车与慢行交通冲突影响因素判别  

Identification of Influencing Factors of Conflicts Between Right-Turning Vehicles and Non-Motorized Traffic at Intersections

作　　者：刘柯柯 冯天军[1] 刘雨松 黄崇钧 LIU Ke-ke;FENG Tian-jun;LIU Yu-song;HUANG Chong-jun

机构地区：[1]吉林建筑大学交通科学与工程学院,吉林长春130118

出　　处：《内蒙古公路与运输》2025年第1期58-62,共5页Highways & Transportation in Inner Mongolia

基　　金：吉林省科技发展计划项目(20220402030GH)。

摘　　要：为探究不受信号控制的右转机动车与慢行交通流冲突严重程度的影响因素,文章选取南阳市典型的十字信号交叉口为研究对象,将冲突区域按照右转机动车的行驶轨迹划分为三部分,引入进入冲突区域之前的平均速度(BCV),并以后侵入时间(PET)、安全减速度(DST)、交通冲突时间(TTC)为冲突指标,量化交通冲突严重程度;利用k-means聚类方法将冲突严重程度划分为轻微冲突、一般冲突和严重冲突;将冲突严重程度作为因变量,确定影响冲突严重程度的17个影响因素作为自变量,并对因变量与影响因素进行Pearson相关性分析,剔除对冲突严重程度影响较弱的解释变量,构建多元有序logistic回归模型。结果表明:在显著性0.05下,右转机动车车型、右转机动车进入冲突区域前的减速度、后侵入时间、头车、进入冲突区域前的平均速度和非机动车或行人是否闯红灯对交通冲突严重程度有显著影响。This paper selects a typical cross signal intersection in Nanyang City as the research object to explore the influencing factors of the conflict severity between right-turning motor vehicles not controlled by signals and non-motorized traffic flow.The conflict area was divided into three parts according to the driving trajectory of right-turning motor vehicles.The average velocity before entering the conflict area(BCV)was introduced,and the post-trespassing time(PET),safe deceleration time(DST),and traffic conflict time(TTC)are used as conflict indicators to quantify the severity of traffic conflicts.The k-means clustering method was used to divide the severity of conflicts into minor conflicts,general conflicts,and severe conflicts.The severity of conflicts was taken as the dependent variable,and 17 influencing factors that affect the severity of conflicts were determined as independent variables.Pearson correlation analysis was performed on the dependent variables and influencing factors,and a Multivariate Ordered Logistic Regression model was constructed after eliminating the explanatory variables with weaker impact on the severity of the conflict.The results show that:at a significance level of 0.05,the type of right-turning motor vehicle,the deceleration of the right-turning motor vehicle before entering the conflict area,PET,the leading vehicle,BCV,and whether non-motor vehicles or pedestrians run red lights have a significant impact on the severity of traffic conflicts.

关 键 词：城市交通 LOGISTIC回归模型 交通冲突 右转机动车 慢行交通流 

分 类 号：U268.6[机械工程—车辆工程]