1990—2021年中国真菌性皮肤病负担变化趋势及预测分析  

Trend and prediction analysis of the changing disease burden of fungal skin diseases in China from 1990 to 2021

作　　者：周智珊 刘晓聪 张宏[1] ZHOU Zhishan;LIU Xiaocong;ZHANG Hong(Department of Dermatology,The First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University,Guangzhou 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学附属第一医院皮肤科,广州510632

出　　处：《中国真菌学杂志》2025年第1期52-58,共7页Chinese Journal of Mycology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC2300400);国家自然科学基金(82272357,82472306)。

摘　　要：目的 分析中国1990—2021年真菌性皮肤病的疾病负担情况,并预测2022—2050年的疾病负担。方法 从2021年的全球疾病负担(global burden of disease,GBD)数据库中提取1990—2021年中国真菌性皮肤病的数据,重点描述患病、发病和伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years,DALY),并使用贝叶斯模型预测2022—2050年的疾病负担趋势。结果 中国真菌性皮肤病的患病率、发病率和DALY率分别从1990年的4579.55/10万、14836.44/10万和25.60/10万下降至2021年的4363.55/10万、14263.04/10万和24.37/10万。患病数、发病数和DALY总数分别从1990年的5.04千万、16.24千万和28.39万逐年上升至2021年的6.96千万、22.94千万和38.65万。男性的疾病负担高于女性。疾病负担在65岁以上年龄段显著上升,95岁以上年龄组最高,其患病率、发病率和DALY率分别为26001.0/10万、80813.2/10万和124.6/10万。预测结果提示,到2050年中国真菌性皮肤病的患病数、发病数和DALY总数将分别达到8.44千万、27.87千万和45.30万。发病率和DALY率预计逐步下降,而患病率预计将缓慢上升。结论 1990—2021年,中国受到真菌性皮肤病影响的人数增加41.21%,预计到2050年将比2021年增加21.5%,应该重点关注老年群体以防止负担进一步加重。Objective To analyze the burden of fungal skin diseases in China from 1990 to 2021,and predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2050.Methods We analyzed the fungal skin diseases in China between 1990 and 2021 from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD 2021)database,focusing on describing the prevalence,incidence and disability-adjusted life years(DALY),and utilized the Bayesian model to predict the future trend of disease burden from 2022 to 2050.Results From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized prevalence,incidence and DALY rates decreased from 4,579.55/10^(5),14,836.44/10^(5) and 25.60/10^(5) in 1990 to 4,363.55/10^(5),14,263.04/10^(5) and 24.37/10^(5) in 2021,respectively.However,the number of prevalence,incidence and DALY of fungal skin diseases in China increased from 50.4 million,162.4 million and 283,900 in 1990 to 69.6 million,229.4 million and 386,500 in 2021,respectively.Male had a higher burden than female.The disease burden increased with age,reaching its peak in the age group over 95,with the standardized prevalence,incidence and DALY rates of 26,001.0/10^(5),80,813.2/10^(5) and 124.6/10^(5),respectively.The forecast results suggest that the number of prevalence,incidence and DALY are expected to continue to rise,reaching 84.4 million,278.7 million,and 453,000 respectively by 2050.It is worth noting that the age-standardized incidence and DALY rates for fungal skin diseases in China from 2022 to 2050 will show a slow downward trend,while age-standardized prevalence rate will show a slow upward trend.Conclusions From 1990 to 2021,the number of people affected by fungal skin diseases in China had increased by 41.21%,and it is projected to increase by 21.5%by 2050 compared to 2021.There should be a focus on the elderly population to prevent the burden from further increasing.

关 键 词：真菌性皮肤病 患病率 发病率 伤残调整寿命年 中国 

分 类 号：R519[医药卫生—内科学]