基于耦合协调模型的能源绿色转型与能源安全协同发展研究  

Based on Coupled Coordination Model Research on Collaborative Development of Energy Green Transition and Energy Security

作　　者：范秋芳[1] 张会娟 刘浩旻 FAN Qiufang;ZHANG Huijuan;LIU Haomin(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum(East China),Qingdao 266580,Shandong,China;Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration and Development,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(华东)经济管理学院,山东青岛266580 [2]中国石化石油勘探开发研究院,北京102206

出　　处：《中国石油大学学报(社会科学版)》2025年第2期1-10,共10页Journal of China University of Petroleum (Edition of Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(72303242)。

摘　　要：能源绿色转型和能源安全协同发展是构建新型能源体系的必要之举。基于2005—2022年全国30个省份的数据,使用AHP-EWM-TOPSIS法和耦合协调模型,深入分析能源绿色转型和能源安全的协同发展状况。研究发现:非化石能源发电量、创新研发能力和绿色GDP是能源绿色转型的关键影响因素,化石能源储量、能源效率和科研投入对能源安全水平影响显著;能源绿色转型与能源安全水平空间差异明显,东南部沿海地区在能源绿色转型方面领先,而黄河中游与东部沿海地区在能源安全上优势明显;耦合协调水平发展态势总体向好,东南部沿海地区耦合协调度处于高位且持续增长,而东北与大西北地区相对滞后。据此,提出非化石能源规模化、化石能源清洁化、提升能源新质生产力以及充分发挥政府职能的建议。The coordinated development of energy green transition and energy security is essential for constructing a new energy system.Based on data from 30 provinces and cities in China from 2005 to 2022,this paper employs the AHP-EWM-TOPSIS method and the coupling coordination model to conduct an in-depth analysis of the coordinated development status between energy green transition and energy security.The study finds that:The key influencing factors for energy green transition are the generation of non-fossil energy,innovation and R&D capabilities,and green GDP,while fossil energy reserves,energy efficiency,and R&D investment significantly impact energy security levels;There is a significant spatial disparity in the levels of energy green transition and energy security.The southeastern coastal areas lead in energy green transition,while the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the eastern coastal regions have distinct advantages in energy security;The coupling coordination level exhibits an oscillating upward trend.The overall development trend is positive,with the southeastern coastal regions maintaining high and continuously increasing coupling coordination levels,while the northeastern and northwestern regions lag behind.Accordingly,this study proposes recommendations for the large-scale development of non-fossil energy,the clean utilization of fossil energy,the enhancement of new-quality energy productivity,and the full play of government functions.

关 键 词：能源绿色转型 能源安全 组合赋权法 耦合协调模型 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学] F206