新质生产力发展水平时空跃迁与影响因素研究  

Research on the Spatio-Temporal Transition and Influencing Factors of the Development Level of New Quality Productivity

作　　者：丁锐 冉晓凤 王可欣 DING Rui;RAN Xiaofeng;WANG Kexin(School of Applied Economics,Guizhou University of Finance and Economics,Guiyang 550025,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州财经大学应用经济学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《经济论坛》2025年第4期42-54,共13页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“都市圈及圈间多层耦合复杂交通网络研究——以成渝地区双城经济圈为例(72001053)”。

摘　　要：文章以新质生产力为研究对象,采用探索性时空数据分析、时空跃迁、地理探测器和时空地理加权回归等研究方法,分析2011—2021年中国31个省级行政区新质生产力发展水平的时空跃迁特征、主要影响因素的作用方向与强度。结果表明:新质生产力发展水平整体显著上升,发展格局呈“东南高西北低”分布;LISA时间路径相对长度表明东部沿海和西部地区更具动态性的局部空间结构,弯曲度体现出中东部地区较为稳定的空间转移方向,移动方向整体具有良好的空间整合性;时空跃迁显现较稳定的局部空间结构和较高的时空凝聚度,存在“路径锁定”效应;劳动者意识、数字基础设施、科技创新能力和新质产业对新质生产力发展水平具有较强解释力,且科技创新能力与新质产业交互作用解释力更强。Taking new quality productivity as the research object,this paper uses exploratory spatio-temporal data analysi,spatio-temporal transitio,geographical detector and spatio-temporal geographical weighted regression to analyze the spatio-temporal transition characteristics,and the acting direction and intensity of the main influencing factors of new quality productivity development level from 2011 to 2021 in the 31 provinces(municipalities directly under the Central Government and autonomous regions).The results show that:The overall development level of new quality productivity increased significantly,and the development pattern was“high in southeast and low in northwest”;the relative length of LISA time path indicates that the eastern coastal and western regions have more dynamic local spatial structure,and the curvature reflects the relatively stable spatial transfer direction in the central and eastern regions,and the overall movement direction has a good spatial integration;the spatio-temporal transition shows relatively stable local spatial structure and high spatio-temporal cohesion,and there is a“path locking”effect;labor consciousness,digital infrastructure,scientific and technological innovation ability and new quality industry have strong explanatory power to the development level of new quality productivity,and the interaction between scientific and technological innovation ability and new quality industry has stronger explanatory power.

关 键 词：新质生产力发展水平 探索性时空数据分析 时空跃迁 

分 类 号：F221[经济管理—国民经济] F222