基于文本挖掘的公众失业感受指数构建及其应用  

Research on the Construction and Application of Public Unemployment Perception Index Based on Text Mining

作　　者：陈亮 贠丽君 CHEN Liang;YUN Lijun(School of Statistics and Data Science,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730101,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计与数据科学学院,兰州730101

出　　处：《经济论坛》2025年第4期126-138,共13页Economic Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金西部项目“数字普惠金融同群效应释放消费潜力的异质性影响研究”(24XTJ005);甘肃省高校青年博士支持项目“数字经济促进共同富裕的理论机制、统计测度及实现路径研究”(2023QB-065)。

摘　　要：建立科学失业统计指标体系是实现充分就业目标的关键所在。运用文本挖掘失业率相关关键词,使用主成分分析方法构建公众失业感受指数,基于混频回归模型分析失业率相关影响因素对经济增长的影响,并通过计算回归模型的残差平方和相对于总离差平方和的变化考察各因素对经济增长的影响效应。结果表明:从应用效果看,与通过抽样调查法获得的调查失业率相比,公众失业感受指数具有更强的敏感性和先行性;从影响效应看,通过混频回归模型证实高频公众失业感受指数对经济增速具有负向影响,二者之间变动趋势符合奥肯定律;从贡献度看,公众失业率感受指数变量的R值相对更小一些,其对经济波动的影响最大,通过引导微观主体心理行为促进经济增长具有可行性。Establishing a scientific statistical indicator system of unemployment is the key to realize the objective requirement of full employment.This article uses text mining to explore keywords related to unemployment rate and constructs a public unemployment perception index using principal component analysis method.Based on the mixed frequency regression model,this article analyzes the impact of factors related to unemployment rate on economic growth,and examine the impact of each factor on economic growth by calculating the change in the residual sum of squares of the regression model relative to the total sum of squares of deviations.The results indicate that:In terms of application effect,compared with the surveyed unemployment rate obtained through sampling survey method,the public unemployment perception index has stronger sensitivity and antecedent;in terms of the impact effect,the mixed frequency regression model has confirmed that the high-frequency public unemployment perception index has a negative impact on economic growth,and the trend of change between the two conforms to Okun's law;in term of contribution,the R value of the public unemployment rate perception index variable is relatively smaller,and it has the greatest impact on economic fluctuations,and it is feasible to promote economic growth by guiding the psychological behavior of micro entities.

关 键 词：公众失业感受指数 文本挖掘 影响效应 贡献度 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]