软件项目工期预测研究综述  

Literature Survey of Software Project Duration Prediction

作　　者：朱庆康 李洪波[1] ZHU Qingkang;LI Hongbo(School of Management,Shanghai University,Shanghai 200444,China;Group of Mobile Ecological Business,Baidu China Limited,Shanghai 200120,China)

机构地区：[1]上海大学管理学院,上海200444 [2]百度中国有限公司移动生态事业群组,上海200120

出　　处：《计算机工程与应用》2025年第8期49-61,共13页Computer Engineering and Applications

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71602106);浙江省医学电子与数字健康重点实验室开放课题(MEDC202308)。

摘　　要：在软件开发项目的初始阶段,相关信息较少且需求定义往往不明确,此时若能对软件项目工期进行准确预测,将会优化项目资源配置,极大节约研发成本,提高项目成功率。软件项目工期预测问题因其重要的理论价值和应用背景,一直受到学术界和工业界的广泛重视。在上述背景下,对国内外软件项目工期预测的研究成果进行了系统性总结与梳理:介绍了软件项目工期预测常用的数据集和指标特征;综述了软件项目工期预测的各类方法和性能评估的理论;汇总了软件项目工期预测的应用与典型案例;总结全文并提出未来进一步的研究方向。At the initial stage of software development projects,relevant information is limited,and requirements are often unclearly defined.If the duration of the software project can be accurately predicted at this stage,it will optimize resource allocation,significantly reduce R&D costs,and enhance the project’s success rate.The problem of software project duration prediction has been widely valued by academia and industry due to its important theoretical value and application background.This paper systematically summarizes and categorizes the research on software project duration prediction.It introduces the commonly used datasets and characteristics for software project duration prediction,reviews various methods for predicting software project duration,including experimental and performance evaluation theories,summarizes the application and typical cases of software project duration prediction,and finally concludes the paper by proposing further research directions for the future.

关 键 词：软件项目 工期预测 预测方法 

分 类 号：TP311[自动化与计算机技术—计算机软件与理论]