基于证据理论的装药撞击点火不确定量化分析  

Quantitative analysis of uncertainty of charge impact ignition based on evidence theory

作　　者：刘骁骁 徐阳冰 侯欣婷 张峰[2] LIU Xiaoxiao;XU Yangbing;HOU Xinting;ZHANG Feng(College of Civil&Architectural Engineering,Xi’an University of Technology,Xi’an 710048,China;College of Mechanics and Civil&Architectural Engineering,Northwestern Polytechnic University,Xi’an 710129,China)

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学土木建筑工程学院,西安710048 [2]西北工业大学力学与土木建筑学院,西安710129

出　　处：《振动与冲击》2025年第7期201-208,257,共9页Journal of Vibration and Shock

基　　金：国家科技部专项项目(G2023041015L);校教师启动基金(107-451122005);重点实验室开放课题(20011ADL20200105)。

摘　　要：炸药运输环境的要求较高也较为复杂,可能会有跌落、撞击等意外风险的发生,使得炸药内部形成局部损伤,引起燃烧、爆炸等后果。但炸药撞击过程中的不确定性使装药撞击点火也存在不确定性,从而导致现有的确定性定量分析结果往往过于保守或偏离理想状态。为此,研究了炸药爆炸过程中不确定性参数对装药撞击的影响,采用ANSYS/LS-DYNA,建立能够反映装药撞击点火的有限元模型,同时依据“裕量和不确定性量化(quantification of margins and uncertainties,QMU)”概念,提出了基于证据理论的装药撞击点火“最大动内能和”QMU方法,建立了装药撞击点火最大动内能和的响应面函数,从而获得“最大动内能和”的概率上下界。最后,基于QMU理论,确定了装药撞击点火模型“最大动内能和”在不同置信水平下的置信因子,用以评价装药撞击点火结构的安全性。该研究能为排查炸药撞击产生的安全隐患提供理论依据,亦为此后炸药运输的安全性设计提供基础保障。Requirements for transportation environment of explosive are high and complex,and there may be unexpected risks of falling and impact to cause local damage inside explosive and consequences of combustion and explosion.However,uncertainty in explosive impact process also leads to uncertainty in charge impact ignition to cause existing deterministic quantitative analysis results being often too conservative or deviate from ideal state.Here,effects of uncertain parameters on charge impact were studied in explosion blast process.The finite element software ANSYS/LS-DYNA was used to establish a finite element model,and reflect charge impact ignition.Meanwhile,based on the concept of“quantification of margins and uncertainties(QMU)”,charge impact ignition“maximum dynamic internal energy sum”QMU method based on evidence theory was proposed,and the response surface function for charge impact ignition maximum dynamic internal energy sum was established to obtain probability upper and lower bounds of“maximum dynamic internal energy sum”.Finally,based on QMU theory,confidence factors for charge impact ignition model“maximum dynamic internal energy sum”under different confidence levels were determined to evaluate the safety of charge impact ignition structure.It was shown that this study work can provide a theoretical basis for identifying safety hidden troubles caused by explosive impact,and also provide a basic guarantee for safety design of explosive transportation in future.

关 键 词：裕量和不确定性量化(QMU) 不确定性 装药撞击点火 最大动能和 证据理论 

分 类 号：O327[理学—一般力学与力学基础] O39[理学—力学]