“全面二孩”政策对家庭消费碳排放的影响  

The Impact of the “Comprehensive Two-Child” Policy on Household Consumption Carbon Emissions

作　　者：陈阳[1] 盖巧巧 CHEN Yang;GAI Qiao-qiao

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《消费经济》2025年第1期33-47,共15页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“家庭数字化对居民消费侧碳排放影响效应与减排路径研究”(24BGL204)。

摘　　要：在大力提振消费和实现“双碳”目标的双重要求下,明确人口政策调整如何影响家庭消费模式,进而影响家庭消费碳排放具有重要现实意义。文章利用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2014—2020年四期面板数据,构建双重差分模型实证检验2016年实施的“全面二孩”政策对家庭消费碳排放的影响及内在机制。研究发现:第一,“全面二孩”政策的实施显著增加了家庭消费碳排放。第二,“全面二孩”政策的实施主要通过家庭消费性支出的增长和资产累积的加速,来提升家庭消费碳排放。第三,在户主为女性、环保意识较低的家庭,以及处于非智慧城市、碳排放水平较高和节能环保支出水平较低的城市的家庭,“全面二孩”政策对家庭消费碳排放的增加效应更明显。各地区在推动“全面二孩”政策的同时,应加强对育龄女性环保意识的培养,提供更多绿色产品,优化家庭消费结构,并通过城市的环境友好型改造以减少可能的负面影响。Under the dual requirements of vigorously boosting consumption and achieving the “dual carbon” target,it is of great practical significance to clarify how the adjustment of population policy affects household consumption pattern,and thus affects household consumption carbon emissions.This paper utilizes the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS) panel data from 2014 to 2020,constructing a Difference-in-Differences model to empirically test the impact of the “comprehensive two-child” policy implemented in 2016 on family consumption carbon emissions and its underlying mechanism.The study finds:First,the implementation of the “comprehensive two-child” policy significantly increases household consumption carbon emissions.Second,the implementation of the “comprehensive two-child” policy mainly increases household consumption carbon emissions through the growth of household consumption expenditure and the acceleration of asset accumulation.Third,in households where the head of the household is female,with lower environmental awareness,and in cities that are not smart cities,with higher carbon emission levels and lower levels of energy-saving and environmental protection expenditure,the “comprehensive two-child” policy has a more pronounced effect on increasing household consumption carbon emissions.While promoting the “comprehensive two-child” policy,all regions should strengthen the cultivation of environmental awareness among women of childbearing age,provide more green products,optimize household consumption structures,and reduce potential negative impacts through environmentally friendly urban transformation.

关 键 词：家庭消费碳排放 “全面二孩”政策 智慧城市 环保意识 绿色产品 

分 类 号：F063.4[经济管理—政治经济学]