基于风险矩阵法的堤防工程自然灾害风险分析  

Analysis of natural disaster risk in levee project based on risk matrix method

作　　者：黄悦 王晓慧 王成刚 王建慧 HUANG Yue;WANG Xiaohui;WANG Chenggang;WANG Jianhui(Beijing Water Science&Technology Institute,Beijing 100048,China;Beijing Water Conservancy Project Management Center,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]北京市水科学技术研究院,北京100048 [2]北京市水利工程管理中心,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2025年第4期35-40,共6页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

摘　　要：当前的堤防风险分析主要以定性分析为主或仅针对渗流、决口等单一风险源进行研究,且风险类别只针对工程本身,对外部环境风险影响的考虑较少,为此,以海河潮白河右堤梭草村险工段为例,采用风险矩阵法,对该段堤防的自然灾害类风险进行分析与研究。结果表明:梭草村险工段存在气象、地质、水旱、地震、其他等5个大类、16个子类的自然灾害风险源。其中,梭草村险工段的自然灾害类风险以一般风险为主,占比75%;低风险占比25%,均为气象类风险;无较大、重大风险。研究成果可为堤防工程综合风险分析提供参考,也可为堤防安全管理和堤防规范化、标准化建设提供技术支撑。The current risk analysis of levees mainly relies on qualitative analysis or only studies single risk sources such as seepage and breach,and the risk classification only consider the project itself with less consideration of the impact of external environmental risks.Therefore,the dangerous section in Suocao Village of the right embankment of Chaobai River in Haihe River was taken as an example,the risk matrix method was adopted to analyze and study the natural disaster risks of this section.The results showed that there were five major categories in the Suaocao Village dangerous section,including meteorological,geological,water and drought,earthquake,and other risks,and 16 subcategories of natural disaster risk sources.Among them,the natural disaster risks of Suaocao Village dangerous section were mainly general risks,accounting for 75%,and low risks account for 25%,all of which were meteorological risks.There were no relatively large or major risks.The research results can provide a reference for the comprehensive risk analysis of levee projects,and also provide technical support for the safety management and standardized construction of levees.

关 键 词：堤防工程 风险分析 风险矩阵法 潮白河 

分 类 号：TV871.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]