基于博弈论组合赋权-TOPSIS的煤矿顶板风险评估  

Risk assessment of roof in coal mine based on game theory combination weighting-TOPSIS

作　　者：赵文龙 张树川[1] AO Wenlong;ZHANG Shuchuan(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学安全科学与工程学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《陕西理工大学学报(自然科学版)》2025年第2期37-45,共9页Journal of Shaanxi University of Technology:Natural Science Edition

基　　金：安徽省教育厅自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2018A0099)。

摘　　要：为了缓解煤矿顶板风险频繁出现、治理不到位等问题,通过专家咨询与现场调查等方法,优选并建立了煤矿顶板风险评价指标体系。运用层次分析法和熵权法分别确定主、客观指标权重,以博弈论为基础,进行组合权重计算,结合优劣解距离评价法构建评价模型。结果表明:评价一级指标的权重从高到低排序为:环境因素>管理因素>人为因素>设备因素,二级指标中缺乏应急管理措施因素权重最高。同时以淮南矿业集团8对生产矿井现状为例,对评估指数贴近度的计算,表明顶板风险从高到低排序为:煤矿6>煤矿4>煤矿1>煤矿8>煤矿3>煤矿2>煤矿7>煤矿5,对风险较高的煤矿企业提出了有针对性的对策建议措施。In order to alleviate the frequent occurrence of roof risk and poor management of roof risk in coal mine,a comprehensive evaluation system for roof risk was established through expert consultation and on-site investigation.The weight of the main and objective indicators was determined using the analytic hierarchy process and entropy weight method,respectively,the weight of the combined comprehensive index was calculated based on game theory,and the TOPSIS method was applied to the evaluation model.The results showed that the weights of the first evaluation index were in the order of environment factor>management factor>human factor>equipment factor from high to low,respectively.The weight of the lack of emergency management measures is the highest.At the same time,for 8 pairs of production mines of Huainan Mining Group,through the calculation of the proximity of the evaluation index,the ranking of roof risk from high to low is:Coal mine 6>Coal mine 4>Coal mine 1>Coal mine 8>Coal mine 3>Coal mine 2>Coal mine 7>Coal mine 5.Targeted countermeasures and suggestions are proposed with high risk.

关 键 词：煤矿顶板风险 组合赋权 优劣解距离法 风险评估 

分 类 号：TD327.2[矿业工程—矿井建设]