1990-2023年洞庭湖区面雨量气候特征分析及预报建议  

Climate Characteristics Analysis and Forecast Suggestions of Area Rainfall in Dongting Lake Area from 1990 to 2023

作　　者：金淑媛 廖春花 马晶昊 段界峰 金丽惠 王瑶 郭田韵 JIN Shu-yuan;LIAO Chun-hua;MA Jing-hao;DUAN Jie-feng;JIN Li-hui;WANG Yao;GUO Tian-yun(Hunan Meteorological Service Center,Changsha 410118,China;Key Laboratory for Meteoro-logical Prevention and Mitigation of Disasters in Hunan Province,Changsha 410118,China;Hu-nan Wuling Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd.,Changsha 410004,China;Huaihua City Mete-orological Bureau,Huaihua 418000,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省气象服务中心,长沙410118 [2]气象防灾减灾湖南省重点实验室,长沙410118 [3]湖南五凌电力科技有限公司,长沙410004 [4]怀化市气象局,湖南怀化418000

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2025年第4期7-13,19,共8页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

基　　金：湖南省气象局重点专项(CXFZ2023-ZDZX06);2024年湖南省自然科学基金企业联合基金《基于水文气象大数据的小水电水情预报技术》(2024JJ9167)。

摘　　要：利用中国气象局天擎系统逐日降水资料,运用站点平均法,计算得出洞庭湖区逐日面雨量,对面雨量进行不同时间尺度的统计分析。结果显示:(1)近34年湖区旱涝年际差异大,年面雨量呈下降趋势但不显著;湖区四季分明,夏季降水最多,春雨多于秋雨,冬季降水最少,12月份月面雨量全年最少为30~40 mm, 9月份至次年2月份(除12月份)为60~80 mm, 3-4月份及8月份为110~150 mm, 5-7月份为170~200 mm。(2)进入4月份汛期强降水频次开始明显增加,6月份达到峰值;日面雨量≥50mm流域性大暴雨年均出现1~2次;≥70mm流域性大暴雨平均10年出现1~2次,均主要集中在6-7月份出现(日面雨量极值85mm左右)。(3)近34年共出现21次集中强降水过程,除10月份、12月份至次年1月份外,其他月份均可能出现,以6-7月份出现最多;若强降水过程连续达4d及以上,致洪风险极高。Based on the daily precipitation data from the Tianqing System of the China Meteorological Administration,the daily areal precipitation over the Dongting lake region was calculated using the station averaging method,and statistical analysis of the areal precipitation was conducted at different time scales.The results showed that:①in the past 34 years,there have been significant inter-annual variations in droughts and floods in the lake region,the annual area rainfall showed a decreasing trend but was not significant.The lake region has distinct seasons,with the most precipitation occurring in summer,more in spring than autumn,and the least in winter.The monthly areal precipitation in December is the lowest throughout the year,ranging from 30~40 mm.From September to February of the next year(excluding December),it ranges from 60~80 mm.In March-April and August,it is 110~150 mm,and 170~200 mm in May-July.②The frequency of heavy precipitation during the flood season starts to increase significantly in April and reaches a peak in June.On average,there are 1~2 basin-wide torrential rains with daily areal precipitation≥50mm annually,and 1~2 basin-wide torrential rains with daily areal precipitation≥70mm occur every 10 years,both of which mainly occur in June-July(daily areal precipitation with an extreme value of around 85mm).③A total of 21 episodes of concentrated heavy precipitation have occurred in the past 34 years,which can occur in any month except October,December to January of the following year,with the highest occurrence in June-July.If the continuous heavy precipitation lasts for 4 days or more,the risk of flooding is extremely high.

关 键 词：面雨量 强降水 洞庭湖区 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]