战略性关键矿产全球供求格局演变与中国应对  

Evolution of Global Supply and Demand Pattern of Strategic Key Minerals and China's Response

作　　者：杨丹辉[1] YANG Danhui(Institute of Industrial Economics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100006)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院工业经济研究所,北京100006

出　　处：《经济纵横》2025年第3期14-30,共17页Economic Review Journal

基　　金：中国社会科学院长城学者计划“能源转型下关键矿产全球供求格局演变与中国关键矿产产业链安全研究”(编号:2024CCXZ005);中国社会科学院登峰战略优势学科(产业经济学)资助的成果。

摘　　要：战略性关键矿产作为在高技术产业和国防军事工业中应用广泛、支撑产业升级与能源转型的重要资源,已成为大国深度布局、国际竞争激烈的焦点领域。文章对战略性关键矿产全球供求格局演变及其驱动因素进行了多尺度分析,指出新一轮科技革命和产业变革、气候治理与碳中和目标叠加大国博弈和地缘政治形势等重大风险事件,大大增加了战略性关键矿产全球供求关系的复杂性和不确定性。针对一些国家布局关键矿产供应链“去中国化”,要加紧建立完善战略性资源保障体系,科学、系统评估关键矿产的资源禀赋、供应链条件、外部环境及应对大国博弈的策略空间,充分发挥资源、产能、市场多重优势,不断增强海外资源整合能力,积极参与全球矿产治理,为建设现代化产业体系、实现“双碳”目标、推动高质量发展提供关键原材料保障,加快由矿产资源大国迈向先进材料强国。Strategic key minerals,as important resources widely used in high-tech industries and national defense and military industries and supporting industrial upgrading and energy transition,have become a focal area in the deep layout and international competition of major countries.This study conducts a multi-scale analysis of the evolution of the global supply and demand pattern of strategic key mineral resources and its driving factors.It points out that major risks such as the new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation,climate governance and carbon neutrality goals,games between major countries,and geopolitical situations,have greatly increased the complexity and uncertainty of the global supply and demand relationship of strategic key minerals.In response to“de-sinicization”of key mineral resource supply chains in some countries,China should accelerate the establishment and improvement of a strategic resource guarantee system and reasonably and systematically evaluate key minerals in terms of the resource endowment,supply chain conditions,external environment,and strategic space for responding to the games between major countries.In addition,China should fully leverage the multiple advantages of resources,production capacity,and market,continuously enhance the ability to integrate overseas resources,and actively participate in global mineral governance.These measures will help to provide key raw material guarantees for building a modern industrial system,achieving the“dual carbon”goals,and promoting high-quality development and accelerate the transition from a great country in mineral resources to a great country in advanced materials.

关 键 词：战略性关键矿产 能源转型 全球供求格局 大国竞争 资源安全 

分 类 号：F462[经济管理—产业经济]