新质生产力对中国绿色贸易出口二元边际的影响研究  

Research on the impact of new quality productive forces on the dual margin of China’s green trade export

作　　者：刘钧霆[1] 张晓雪 LIU Jun-ting;ZHANG Xiao-xue(School of Finance and Trade,Liaoning University,Shenyang,Liaoning 110036)

机构地区：[1]辽宁大学金融与贸易学院,辽宁沈阳110036

出　　处：《价格月刊》2025年第4期38-49,共12页

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅高校基础科研项目重点攻关项目“全球经贸规则重构与中国产业政策研究”(编号:LJ112410140069)。

摘　　要：利用2012—2022年中国对117个贸易伙伴的出口数据,从出口二元边际视角探讨了新质生产力对中国绿色贸易的影响。研究发现,新质生产力对绿色贸易出口集约边际和扩展边际具有正向促进作用,其通过提升绿色产品出口技术复杂度和降低绿色贸易出口成本进行有效传导;新质生产力对绿色贸易出口二元边际的影响在不同区域贸易协定下具有异质性;进一步分析发现,新质生产力对绿色贸易出口的促进作用受到制度距离的负向调节,且主要体现在集约边际上;同时门槛效应分析表明环境规制具有双重门槛效应,并且随着环境规制水平的提高,新质生产力对绿色贸易的影响存在非线性边际递减正向促进效果。基于此,提出了加速培育新质生产力、制定区域化绿色贸易促进策略、完善制度建设、合理提升环境规制强度等对策建议。Based on the data of China’s exports to 117 trading partners from 2012 to 2022,this paper discusses the impact of new quality productive forces on China’s green trade from the perspective of export duality margin.It is found that the new quality productive forces has a positive promoting effect on the export intensive margin and ex-tensive margin of green trade,which is effectively transmitted by improving the technological complexity of green product export and reducing the export cost of green trade.The impact of new quality productive forces on the dual margin of green trade exports exhibits heterogeneity under different regional trade agreements;Further analysis shows that the promotion effect of new quality productive forces on green trade export is negatively regulated by in-stitutional distance,which is mainly reflected in the intensive margin;At the same time,the threshold effect analy-sis shows that environmental regulation has a dual threshold effect,and with the improvement of environmental reg-ulation level,the impact of new quality productive forces on green trade has a non-linear marginal diminishing pos-itive promoting effect.Based on this,this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions,such as accel-erating the cultivation of new quality productive forces,formulating regional green trade promotion strategy,im-proving system construction,and reasonably enhancing environmental regulation intensity.

关 键 词：新质生产力 绿色贸易 二元边际 出口技术复杂度 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]