中国与扩员后金砖伙伴国贸易效率和贸易潜力研究  

Research on trade efficiency and trade potential between China and BRICS partner countries after membership expansion

作　　者：尹华[1] 胡佳琦 YIN Hua;HU Jia-qi(Business School,Central South University,Changsha,Hunan 410083)

机构地区：[1]中南大学商学院,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《价格月刊》2025年第4期65-75,共11页

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“‘一带一路’建设中我国机械制造过剩产能需求侧与供给侧化解机制研究”(编号:16BJY079);湖南省哲学社会科学基金项目“‘双碳’背景下湖南打造国家先进制造业高地成效评价与优化路径研究”(编号:22JD002)。

摘　　要：在分析中国与9个金砖伙伴国贸易现状的基础上,采用随机前沿引力模型对中国与各伙伴国的贸易效率、贸易潜力进行了测算,并探讨其影响因素。结果表明:中国与金砖伙伴国的贸易发展态势良好,但存在贸易不平衡、贸易联系有待加强等问题;由于贸易非效率的存在,中国与金砖伙伴国的贸易额在不同程度上偏离了贸易潜力值,且与各伙伴国的贸易潜力、贸易拓展空间差异较大;贸易效率影响因素既包含经济规模、人口规模、地理距离、是否相邻、宗教相似程度等自然因素,还包括RTA签署、伙伴国关税壁垒、海关清关效率、基础设施建设、政府效率、制造业发展差距、中国对金砖伙伴国直接投资等人为因素,且这些因素对中国具有极强竞争力、较强竞争力、中等竞争力产品出口存在异质性影响;RTA签署、伙伴国关税水平和海关清关效率对中国中等竞争力产品出口有负向作用,伙伴国政府效率对中国极强竞争力、较强竞争力产品出口有正向作用;伙伴国政治风险对中国极强竞争力产品出口作用为正向,对中国较强竞争力、中等竞争力产品出口作用为负向;制造业发展差距对中国较强竞争力、中等竞争力产品出口具有正向作用,但对极强竞争力产品出口的影响不显著。Based on the analysis of the current trade situation between China and 9 BRICS partner countries,this paper uses stochastic frontier gravity model to estimate the trade efficiency and trade potential between China and each partner country,and explores the influencing factors.The results show that the trade development trend be-tween China and BRICS partner countries is good,but there are problems such as trade imbalance and the need to strengthen trade links;Due to the existence of inefficient trade,the trade volume between China and its BRICS partner countries deviates from the trade potential value to varying degrees,and the trade potential and trade ex-pansion space between China and the partners are greatly different.The influencing factors of trade efficiency in-clude not only natural factors such as economic scale,population size,geographical distance,adjacent degree,and religious similarity,but also human factors such as the signing of RTAs,tariff barriers of partner countries,customs clearance efficiency,infrastructure construction,government efficiency,manufacturing development gap,and Chi-na’s direct investment in BRICS partner countries.These factors have heterogeneous effects on the export of Chi-na’s products with highly competitiveness,strong competitiveness and moderately competitiveness;The signing of RTAs,tariff levels of partner countries,and customs clearance efficiency have a negative effect on the export of China’s moderately competitive products,while the efficiency of partner country governments has a positive effect on the export of China’s highly competitive and strong competitive products;The political risk of partner countries has a positive effect on the export of China’s highly competitive products,and a negative effect on the export of China’s strong and moderately competitive products.The development gap in the manufacturing industry has a positive effect on the export of China’s strong and moderately competitive products,but has no significant effect on the export of

关 键 词：金砖伙伴国 贸易潜力 贸易效率 随机前沿引力模型 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]