拉动内需、惠民政策与企业出口策略调整  

Domestic Demand Stimulation,People-Friendly Policies and Corporate Export Strategy Adjustments

作　　者：孙浦阳 马科伟 于春海[1] Sun Puyang;Ma Kewei;Yu Chunha

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学经济学院,北京市100872

出　　处：《世界经济》2025年第3期3-29,共27页The Journal of World Economy

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“建设更高水平开放型经济新体制研究”(21ZDA092);教育部基地重大项目“百年变局下的世界经济及中国与世界经济关系研究”(20231JY0103)的资助。

摘　　要：扩大内需会激发国内市场潜力,影响外贸企业的销售策略。本文使用2011-2014年实施的旨在拉动内需的惠民政策,构建一个双重差分模型,检验了拉动内需政策如何影响企业出口策略。研究结果表明:在拉动内需政策实施后,受影响的企业产品出口额和出口数量平均下降了29.8%和20.9%,且该影响具有持续性,使用工具变量等方法检验后结果依然稳健。机制检验发现,企业的技术水平和产品质量越高,或者获取中间商服务越便利,拉动内需政策帮助企业降低销售策略的调整成本就越充分,对出口的负向影响就越大。企业受到销售策略调整成本的阻碍越严重,在拉动内需政策实施后,企业产品出口下降就越显著。此外,拉动内需政策还促使外贸企业更加重视国内市场。本研究对中国促进实现内外贸一体化发展,以及如何帮助外贸企业面对不稳定的国际市场具有理论和现实意义。In the process of implementing policies to expand domestic demand,the potential of the domestic market is significantly bolstered.At this juncture,if foreign trade companies adapt their sales strategies‒both domestically and internationally‒and place greater emphasis on the domestic market,the impact of the domestic demand expansion policy becomes particularly evident.However,when foreign trade companies face demand shocks and seek to adjust their sales strategies across both domestic and international markets,they often encounter significant adjustment costs.These costs are primarily reflected in the challenges of effectively tapping into the domestic market and overcoming developmental obstacles.To support foreign trade companies in smoothly transitioning their sales strategies,the Chinese government has been introducing a range of measures designed to help these companies reduce the costs associated with such adjustments.Building on the above context,this paper seeks to examine whether policies aimed at stimulating domestic demand can assist foreign trade companies in reducing their adjustment costs and facilitating a smoother transition in their product export strategies.In particular,this study compiles a company-product list under the framework of the people-friendly policy implemented between 2011 and 2014 and employs a difference-in-differences(DID)model for analysis.The findings reveal that,following the implementation of the domestic demand stimulus policy,the export volume of the treatment group decreased by an average of 29.8%,while the overall export volume decreased by 20.9%.This negative effect exhibits a degree of persistence,with the magnitude of the impact increasing in proportion to the level of subsidies received by the selected companies’products.Further analysis through mechanism testing indicates that companies with higher technological capabilities and superior product quality,or those with easier access to intermediary services,experience greater reductions in adjustment costs due t

关 键 词：拉动内需 企业出口 销售策略 调整成本 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易] F752.62[经济管理—产业经济]