经济贫困是否导致恐怖主义——基于恐怖主义异质性分析  

Does Economic Poverty Lead to Terrorism? An Analysis of the Heterogeneity of Terrorism

作　　者：李益斌 胡宋达 LI Yibin;HU Songda(Institute for Central Asian Studies,Lanzhou University;School of Politics and International Relations,Lanzhou University)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学中亚研究所,兰州730000 [2]兰州大学政治与国际关系学院,兰州730000

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2025年第3期94-120,152,153,共29页World Economics and Politics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“基于大数据驱动的未来十年中国周边恐怖主义风险及应对研究”(项目批准号:22CGJ001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：探究恐怖主义产生的经济根源对国家制定反恐政策具有重要意义。学界对经济贫困是否导致恐怖主义一直存在较大争议。既有研究大多将恐怖主义活动视为一种系统性现象,进而分析其产生的经济根源,但忽视了经济贫困与恐怖主义异质性的关系。按照意识形态的分类标准,可以将恐怖主义划分为宗教极端型恐怖主义、民族分离型恐怖主义、左翼恐怖主义和右翼恐怖主义四种类型。基于相对剥夺理论,作者从价值期望与价值能力两个维度分析了经济贫困影响不同类型恐怖主义的解释机制。研究发现,经济贫困对宗教极端型恐怖主义和右翼恐怖主义产生的影响主要通过非经济型价值期望传播这一方式得以实现。经济贫困对民族分离型恐怖主义和左翼恐怖主义产生的影响则分别通过非经济型价值期望—递减型相对剥夺解释机制和经济型价值期望—累进型相对剥夺解释机制得以实现。这两种相对剥夺解释机制分别在民族分离型恐怖组织“俾路支解放武装”和左翼恐怖组织“光辉道路”两个案例中得到验证。虽然恐怖主义具有异质性特征,但经济相对剥夺研究视角可以为分析经济贫困与不同类型恐怖主义之间的内在关系提供一条有效的研究路径。The study of the economic roots of terrorism is of great significance for formulating national counter-terrorism policies. There has been great controversy over whether economic poverty leads to terrorism. Existing studies tend to regard terrorist activities as systematic phenomena and focus on their economic roots,ignoring the relationship between economic poverty and the heterogeneity of terrorism. Terrorism can be categorized into four types based on different ideologies: religious extremist terrorism,ethnic separatist terrorism,left-wing terrorism,and right-wing terrorism. Utilizing the relative deprivation theory,the authors examined the impacts of economic poverty on different types of terrorism from the two dimensions of value expectations and value capabilities. The study found that economic poverty primarily influenced religious extremist terrorism and right-wing terrorism through the diffusion of non-economic value expectations. In contrast,the influences of economic poverty on ethnic separatist terrorism and left-wing terrorism are exerted through the mechanism of decremental deprivation of non-economic value expectations and the mechanism of progressive deprivation of economic value expectations,respectively. These two explanatory mechanisms have been supported by case studies of the ethnic separatist terrorist organization “Balochistan Liberation Army”and the left-wing terrorist organization “Sendero Luminoso”. The perspective of economic relative deprivation offers a valuable framework for understanding the intrinsic relationship between economic poverty and different types of terrorism.

关 键 词：经济贫困 恐怖主义异质性 相对剥夺理论 意识形态 反恐政策 

分 类 号：D815.5[政治法律—国际关系]