钢铁行业低碳发展对策研究:回顾与展望  

Research on low-carbon development strategies in steel industry:Review and prospect

作　　者：殷瑞钰[1] 上官方钦 崔志峰 YIN Ruiyu;SHANGGUAN Fangqin;CUI Zhifeng(Central Iron and Steel Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100081,China;Steel Industry Green and Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Center,China Iron and Steel Research Institute Group,Beijing 100081,China;School of Metallurgy and Ecological Engineering,University of Science and Technology Beijing,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]钢铁研究总院有限公司,北京100081 [2]中国钢研科技集团有限公司钢铁绿色化智能化技术中心,北京100081 [3]北京科技大学冶金与生态工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《中国冶金》2025年第3期1-15,共15页China Metallurgy

摘　　要：回顾分析了中国粗钢年产量、2023—2024年粗钢月度日均产量和月末螺纹钢价格以及钢材直接出口量、钢铁制品间接出口量、CO_(2)排放量等的变化,认为中国粗钢产量总体呈现供大于求的态势,钢铁行业已经进入减量化波动下行阶段;在粗钢产量不明显增加的前提下,可以说中国钢铁行业已开始步入CO_(2)排放稳定期。从未来粗钢产量的预测、供给侧结构性改革、进出口政策调整等方面探讨了中国粗钢产出总量控制的目标和措施;结合未来粗钢产量和废钢资源量的预测,提出了在“双碳”背景下,未来钢铁行业将逐步形成3类典型的钢铁制造流程,即高炉-转炉长流程、全废钢电炉流程和氢还原-电炉流程,并对3类流程的交替演变过程进行讨论,指出中国钢铁工业也应该借助“双碳”大背景,引导废钢资源尽可能流向电炉流程,进而逐步调整全行业的铁素资源结构、产品结构和流程结构的布局;从界面技术优化、动态精准设计与全流程智能化等方面来探讨钢铁制造全流程的连续性提升的路径。最后,通过钢铁行业“双碳”分析模型的构建与分析,提出控制并削减粗钢产量是最有效的降碳措施,同样重要的是钢厂流程结构优化。The changes of China's annual crude steel output,average daily crude steel production on a monthly basis over the past two years,end-of-month rebar prices,direct steel exports,indirect exports of steel products,and CO_(2) emissions were reviewed and analyzed.It is concluded that China's crude steel production is generally in a situation of oversupply,and the steel industry has entered a downward phase of reduction fluctuations.Under the premise of no significant increase in crude steel output,China's steel industry can be considered to have entered a CO_(2) emission stabilization period.The study explores targets and measures for total crude steel output control from perspectives including future production forecasts,supply-side structural reforms,and adjustments to import/export policies.By integrating projections of future crude steel output and scrap resources,it is proposed that under the goals of"Carbon peak and Carbon neutrality",China's steel industry will gradually develop three typical manufacturing processes:BF-BOF long process,full scrap EAF process,and hydrogen reduction-EAF process.The evolutionary alternation of these three processes is discussed,emphasizing that China's steel industry should leverage the"Carbon peak and Carbon neutrality"context to guide scrap resources toward EAF process,thereby gradually optimizing the sector's ferrous resource structure,product structure,and process structure.Pathways for enhancing manufacturing continuity are explored through interface technology optimization,dynamic precision design,and full-process intelligentization.Finally,through the construction and analysis of a"dual carbon"analytical model for the steel industry,the study identifies controlling and reducing crude steel output as the most effective decarbonization measure,with process structure optimization in steel plants being equally critical.

关 键 词：钢铁行业 低碳发展 对策研究 削减粗钢产出总量 3类钢铁制造流程 有序引导全废钢电炉流程发展 

分 类 号：TF4[冶金工程—钢铁冶金]