人力资本促进城市群全要素生产率的作用机制研究——基于产业影响视角  

Mechanism of Human Capital in Promoting Total Factor Productivity in Urban Agglomerations:An Industrial Impact Perspective

作　　者：潘林伟 屈丽 Pan Linwei;Qu Li

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学经济与管理学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《统计理论与实践》2025年第2期54-62,共9页STATISTICAL THEORY AND PRACTICE

基　　金：重庆市教委人文社科基地重点项目“成渝地区双城经济圈产业协同规划及选择策略研究”(23SKJD081);重庆交通大学研究生科研创新项目“组态视角下多要素驱动城市群人力资本发展的等效路径分析”(2024S0121)。

摘　　要：现代城市群因功能分工和产业协作形成的复杂结构为人力资本集聚提供了新机制和新特征。采用DEA-Malmquist指数模型对2005—2020年我国十大城市群进行全要素生产率测算,接着采用固定效应模型和中介模型实证检验人力资本对全要素生产率的影响及作用路径。研究发现:人力资本存量和人力资本结构均能促进全要素生产率提高,且人力资本结构的促进作用更大。产业发展成为重要的“渠道”:产业集聚在人力资本存量和全要素生产率中起部分中介作用,但较高的人力资本存量能降低产业过度集聚的抑制作用,此时产业结构对产业集聚的中介效应有正向调节作用;产业结构在人力资本结构和全要素生产率中起遮掩作用,但较高水平的人力资本结构会进一步放大产业结构升级及产业失衡的抑制作用,同时产业集聚对产业结构的遮掩效应起负向调节作用。研究证明城市群不存在绝对的人才和产业的“集聚红利”和“结构红利”。打造城市群“质”“量”并重的人才竞争新优势,需要把握自身人才需求和产业发展的适度性,加快城市群全要素生产率提升和新质生产力发展。The complex structure formed by functional division and industrial collaboration in modern urban agglomerations provides new mechanisms and characteristics for human capital agglomeration.Using the DEA-Malmquist index model to measure the total factor productivity(TFP)of China’s ten major urban agglomerations from 2005 to 2020,this study employs fixed-effects models and mediation models to empirically examine the impact of human capital on TFP and the industrial pathways.The findings indicate that both human capital stock and structure promote TFP,with the latter having a more significant effect.Industrial development serves as a crucial channel:industrial agglomeration partially mediates the relationship between human capital stock and TFP,but higher human capital stock mitigates the inhibitory effect of excessive industrial agglomeration,with industrial structure positively moderating the mediation effect.Industrial structure masks the relationship between human capital structure and TFP,but higher human capital structure amplifies the inhibitory effects of industrial structure upgrading and imbalance,while industrial agglomeration negatively moderates the masking effect.The study demonstrates that urban agglomerations do not have absolute“agglomeration dividends”or“structural dividends”in terms of talent and industry.To build a new competitive advantage in talent and industry,urban agglomerations need to balance their talent needs and industrial development,accelerating TFP growth and new quality productivity development.

关 键 词：人力资本规模 人力资本结构 产业结构 产业集聚 全要素生产率 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济] F124.4