基于博弈论-改进云模型的新能源电力系统适应性评估  

Adaptability evaluation of new energy power systems based on game theory and an improved cloud model

作　　者：汤明润[1] 李若旸 程晓钰 代馨尹 于雪丰 杨淑霞[1] TANG Mingrun;LI Ruoyang;CHENG Xiaoyu;DAI Xinyin;YU Xuefeng;YANG Shuxia(North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company,Beijing 100054,China;Beijing Guodiantong Network Technology Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100071,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学,北京102206 [2]国网北京电力公司,北京100054 [3]北京国电通网络技术有限公司,北京100071

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2025年第7期40-51,共12页Power System Protection and Control

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(72074074)。

摘　　要：发展新能源电力系统是实现双碳目标的要求,因此对一定状态下新能源电力系统适应性进行评估具有重要意义。首先,分析了新能源电力系统适应性的影响因素,基于新能源电力系统的特点,建立了适应性评价指标体系,包含电网结构、经济性和能源结构等3个一级指标及15个二级指标。其次,基于博弈理论进行组合赋权,综合了熵权法、CRITIC法及变异系数法3种客观赋权法,得到最佳组合权重。然后,提出了改进云模型,以此克服指标本身的随机性,并通过组合权重对云模型进行改进,用以评价新能源电力系统的适应能力。最后,选取我国A地区配电网进行算例分析,验证了所提评估模型的准确性及有效性,为识别新能源电力系统的脆弱性、提升新能源电力系统的适应能力提供可靠的建议。Developing new energy power systems is essential for achieving the dual-carbon goal.Therefore,it is of great significance to evaluate the adaptability of new energy power systems in specific conditions.First,the influencing factors of adaptability in new energy power systems are analyzed.Based on the characteristics of the systems,an adaptability evaluation index system is established,comprising three primary indicators,i.e.,grid structure,economic efficiency,and energy structure,along with 15 secondary indicators.Second,a combination weighting method based on game theory is proposed,integrating three objective assignment methods:the entropy weight method,CRITIC method,and the coefficient of variation methods,to obtain the optimal combined weights.Third,an improved cloud model is proposed to overcome the randomness of the indicators.The cloud model is improved using the combined weights to evaluate the adaptability of new energy power systems.Finally,a case study is conducted on the distribution network in area A of China to verify the accuracy and validity of the proposed evaluation model.The findings provide reliable recommendations for identifying system vulnerability and improving the adaptability of new energy power systems.

关 键 词：新能源电力系统 适应性评估 博弈论思想 改进云模型 综合评价 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]