敦煌光伏发电项目风险评价与应对措施研究  

Research on Risk Evaluation and Response of Photovoltaic Power Project in Dunhuang

作　　者：陈涛 鲍慧 吴文钰 向涛 马小龙 祁斌山 Chen Tao;Bao Hui;Wu Wenyu;Xiang Tao;Ma Xiaolong;Qi Binshan(Three Gorges New Energy Dunhuang Power Generation Co.,Ltd,Jiuquan 735000,Gansu,China;School of Earth and Environment,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]三峡新能源敦煌发电有限公司,甘肃酒泉735000 [2]安徽理工大学地球与环境学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《绿色科技》2025年第4期206-212,共7页Journal of Green Science and Technology

摘　　要：随着全球能源结构转型和环境保护需求的加剧,光伏发电项目作为清洁能源的重要组成部分,得到了快速发展,但在项目实施过程中存在诸多风险,如经济风险、技术问题、政策与法规变动、自然环境影响等,这些风险对项目的顺利实施具有重大影响。本文以敦煌光伏发电项目为例,系统分析了项目投资、建设、运营各阶段的风险因素对项目长久性运行的影响,并采用层次分析法构建了风险综合评价模型,对风险因素进行了评价。研究结果表明:技术风险、经济风险和环境风险以及社会政策风险为影响项目的主要风险。基于这些风险评价结果,本文进一步探讨了针对性的风险应对措施,为光伏发电项目的风险管理提供一定的参考依据。另外,此研究对促进光伏发电行业的健康发展和风险防范具有重要意义。With the intensification of global energy structure transformation and environmental protection needs,photovoltaic power generation projects,as an important component of clean energy,have developed rapidly.However,there are many risks in the implementation process of the project,such as economic risks,technical issues,policy and regulatory changes,natural environmental impacts,etc.,which have a significant impact on the smooth implementation of the project.Therefore,taking the Dunhuang photovoltaic power generation project as an example,this study systematically analyzes the impact of risk factors in the investment,construction,and operation stages on the long-term operation of the project,and uses the analytic hierarchy process to construct a comprehensive risk evaluation model to evaluate the risk factors.The results show that technical risks,economic risks,environmental risks,and social policy risks are the main risks affecting the project.Based on these risk evaluation,this paper further discusses targeted risk response measures and provides some reference for the risk management of photovoltaic power generation projects.In addition,this study is of great significance for promoting the healthy development of the photovoltaic power generation industry and risk prevention.

关 键 词：光伏发电 风险管理 层次分析法 综合评价模型 

分 类 号：TM615[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]