中国巨灾保险制度演化博弈分析与协同机制研究:基于制度协同的多主体动态均衡视角  

Research on the Evolutionary Game Analysis and Coordination Mechanism of China's Catastrophe Insurance System:A Multi-Agent Dynamic Equilibrium Perspective Based on Institutional Coordination

作　　者：蒲成毅 李炳萱 张采立 PU Chengyi;LI Bingxuan;ZHANG Caili(School of Insurance,Central University of Finance and Economics)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学保险学院

出　　处：《金融经济》2025年第1期25-36,共12页Finance Economy

基　　金：科技创新2030“新一代人工智能”重大课题“不确定环境下农业大灾风险转移”(2022ZD0119504)。

摘　　要：本文聚焦于中国巨灾保险制度的完善问题,研究巨灾保险市场、资本市场等多市场联动以及政府行为等因子对博弈均衡的影响,并构建了一个以金融市场为视角展开的,包含投保人、保险公司、地方政府和资本市场的多主体演化博弈模型。研究发现,保险市场存在多种演化趋势。根据MATLAB仿真模拟结果,引入资本市场会加速博弈向最优状态演化,且金融利率、银行利率、个人收入的提高都有利于市场向最优状态演化。按照博弈进程来看,市场演化的结果前期取决于政府引导的相关措施,后期取决于保险公司的行为。基于此,本文提出了一个三阶段递进式政策框架,短期内着力于规范市场以解决失灵问题,中期构建分层触发机制,长期明确四方权责关系和分摊比例,以促进市场福利最大化。This paper focuses on the improvement of China's catastrophe insurance system,examining the impact of multi-market linkages,such as the catastrophe insurance market and capital market,as well as government behavior,on game equilibrium.A multi-agent evolutionary game model is constructed from the perspective of the financial market,involving policyholders,insurance companies,local governments,and the capital market.The study finds that the insurance market exhibits multiple evolutionary trends.According to MATLAB simulation results,the introduction of the capital market accelerates the evolution of the game toward the optimal state,and increases in financial interest rates,bank interest rates,and personal income all facilitate the market's evolution toward the optimal state.In terms of the game process,the outcome of market evolution depends on government-guided measures in the early stages and on the behavior of insurance companies in the later stages.Based on these findings,this paper proposes a three-stage progressive policy framework.In the short term,efforts should focus on regulating the market to address market failures;in the medium term,a layered triggering mechanism should be established;and in the long term,the responsibilities and loss-sharing ratios among the four parties should be clarified to promote maximum market welfare.

关 键 词：巨灾保险市场 资本市场 政府行为 损失分摊体系 市场最优 

分 类 号：F840[经济管理—保险]