人口老龄化对金融系统性风险的冲击  

Impact of Population Aging on Financial Systemic Risk

作　　者：巫姣 莫阳紫嫣 WU Jiao;MO Yangziyan(People's Bank of China Zhuzhou Branch)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行株洲市分行

出　　处：《金融经济》2025年第1期76-89,共14页Finance Economy

摘　　要：金融在应对人口老龄化、减轻人口结构冲击中扮演着重要角色。为探索人口老龄化对金融系统性风险的冲击,本文基于31个省级行政区的宏观数据和4030家金融机构的微观数据,利用PVAR面板模型系统考察了人口老龄化影响金融稳定的作用机制和传导过程。研究发现,在人口老龄化发展过程中,居民资产负债结构的变化将加剧金融机构资产负债表的脆弱性,对金融系统性风险产生显著的负面冲击;老年人口的消费需求相对平稳,将削弱财政政策的有效性,老龄化成本高企将加重财政负担,加剧高债务管理压力,极易触发金融系统性风险;人口老龄化的通缩效应和高储蓄低消费特征,将推动自然利率和有效信贷需求持续走低,降低市场对利率政策和信贷政策的敏感度,导致货币政策调控效果不如预期,难以有效防控金融系统性风险的发生。基于此,本文建议积极应对人口老龄化对经济金融的负面影响,合理控制债务规模,稳慎推进政府债务化解,学习和借鉴深度老龄化国家的货币政策经验,确保在人口结构老龄化的情况下提升金融机构金融资源配置功能,增加经济弹性,维护金融稳定。Finance plays an important role in addressing population aging and mitigating the impact of population structure changes.To explore the impact of population aging on financial systemic risk,this paper employs a PVAR panel model to systematically examine the mechanisms and transmission processes through which population aging affects financial stability,based on macroeconomic data from 31 provincial-level administrative regions and microeconomic data from 4,030 financial institutions.The study finds that during the process of population aging,changes in the balance sheet structure of households will increase the fragility of financial institutions'balance sheets,resulting in a significant negative impact on financial systemic risk.The relatively stable consumption demand of the elderly population will weaken the effectiveness of fiscal policy.The rising costs associated with aging will increase fiscal burdens and exacerbate high-debt management pressures,which can easily trigger financial systemic risks.The deflationary effects of population aging and its characteristics of high-savings and low-consumption will drive down the natural interest rate and effective credit demand,reducing the market's sensitivity to interest rate and credit policies.This,in turn,leads to suboptimal monetary policy effectiveness and makes it difficult to effectively prevent and control the occurrence of financial systemic risks.Based on these findings,this paper suggests actively addressing the negative impacts of population aging on the economy and finance,reasonably controlling debt scales,prudently advancing the resolution of government debt,and learning from the monetary policy experiences of countries with deep aging populations.These measures can help enhance the financial resource allocation functions of financial institutions,increase economic resilience,and maintain financial stability under the context of an aging population structure.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 金融系统性风险 货币政策 财政政策 政府债务管理 

分 类 号：F832.59[经济管理—金融学]