进度滞后情境下施工合同双方策略选择博弈分析  

Game Analysis on Strategy Selection of Construction Contract Parties in Situation of Schedule Delay

作　　者：王晟霖 魏道江 肖耀廷 WANG Shenglin;WEI Daojiang;XIAO Yaoting(Hubei Jingsheng Construction Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Jingzhou 434000,Hubei,China;School of Civil Engineering and Architecture,Hubei University of Arts and Science,Xiangyang 441053,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北荆晟建设工程有限公司,湖北荆州434000 [2]湖北文理学院土木工程与建筑学院,湖北襄阳441053

出　　处：《建筑施工》2025年第4期638-641,共4页Building Construction

基　　金：湖北省自然科学基金联合基金项目资助(JCZRLH202500117)。

摘　　要：为了对进度滞后情境下施工合同双方策略选择行为进行分析,应用博弈理论,将业主与承包商之间的博弈分为6种不同的情形,对应于5种不同的博弈结果。基于理性人的假设,分情况讨论了在不同情况下,业主和承包商的博弈均衡结果,即当合同约定的误期惩罚力度大于项目交付使用后单位时间创造的收益时,博弈均衡结果是要么工程按期完工,要么工程按当前进度滞后于计划工期;反之,当误期惩罚力度小于项目交付使用后单位时间创造的收益时,博弈均衡的结果是要么工程按期完工,要么承包商采取赶工措施,挽回一定的滞后时间,但实际工期仍然会滞后计划工期;最不利的情况是,如果双方不能就顺延工期达成一致,将可能出现合同双方对簿公堂的局面。案例分析表明,所提出的方法能够为合同双方理性决策提供决策依据,尤其是在合同双方欲通过协商达成工程延期共识时,对于双方皆有利的延期范围可被合理地界定。To analyze the strategy selection behavior of both parties in a construction contract under schedule delay,game theory is applied to divide the game between the owner and the contractor into six different scenarios,corresponding to five different outcomes.Based on the assumption of rationality,the game equilibrium outcomes between the owner and the contractor are discussed under different conditions.That is,when the penalty for delay stipulated in the contract is greater than the profit created per unit time after the project is delivered for use,the game equilibrium outcomes are either the project is completed on time or the project lags behind the planned schedule according to the current progress.Conversely,when the penalty for delay is less than the income created per unit time after the project is delivered for use,the equilibrium outcome is either the project is completed on time or the contractor takes measures to catch up with the work to recover a certain amount of delay,but the actual construction period will still lag behind the planned schedule.The most unfavorable scenario occurs when the two parties cannot reach an agreement on the extension of the construction period,potentially leading to a situation where the two parties go to court.The case study demonstrates that the proposed method can provide a decision-making basis for rational decisions by both parties,particularly when both parties aim to reach a consensus on project extension through negotiation,where the extension range beneficial to both can be reasonably defined.

关 键 词：工程进度滞后 施工合同 策略选择行为 博弈理论 业主 承包商 

分 类 号：TU71[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]