海河“23·7”暴雨移置辽河流域预报调度分析  

Scenario analysis of"23·7"rainstorm of Haihe River Basin transposed in Liaohe River Basin

作　　者：梁卓然 金鑫 LIANG Zhuoran;JIN Xin(Liaoning Provincial Water Resources Affairs Service Center,Shenyang 110003;River and Reservoirs Management Service Center of Liaoning Province(Hydrological Bureau of Liaoning Province),Shenyang 110003)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省水利事务服务中心,沈阳110003 [2]辽宁省河库管理服务中心(辽宁省水文局),沈阳110003

出　　处：《中国防汛抗旱》2025年第4期90-94,共5页China Flood & Drought Management

摘　　要：受2305号台风“杜苏芮”影响,2023年7月28日至8月1日,海河流域普降大到暴雨,导致发生流域性特大洪水,多条河流洪水超历史极值。考虑暴雨的气候成因、地理位置、地形地貌等多要素,将海河流域暴雨中心的大清河流域暴雨过程移置到辽河流域,分析河道行洪能力、水库调度方式下辽河干支流主要控制节点洪水特征。结果表明:暴雨移置情景下,辽河流域防洪压力较大,干支流大部分站点超保证流量。基于上述分析,明晰了辽河流域应对极端暴雨的能力,以期为辽河流域防洪能力提升提供支撑及参考。Affected by Typhoon 2305“Doksuri”,a basinwide heavy rainfall occurred in the Haihe River Basin from July 28th to August 1st in 2023,which lead to catastrophic floods in the basin and floods in several rivers will exceed the historical extreme values.Considering the climatic causes,geographical location,topography and other factors of rainstorm,the rainstorm process in Daqing River Basin,which is the rainstorm center of the Haihe River Basin,has been transposed in the Liaohe River Basin(Liaoning section)to analyze the flood characteristics of the main control nodes under the current flood discharge capacity and the reservoirs scheduling methods.The results show that:under the Haihe rainstorm transposition scenario,the flood pressure in the Liaohe River Basin is relatively large.Most control sections in the trunk and tributaries will exceeding the guaranteed flow.The research results identify the capacity of Liaohe River Basin to cope with extreme heavy rainstorm,and provide support and reference for the improvement of flood control capacity of Liaohe River Basin.

关 键 词：海河“23·7”暴雨 情景模拟 预报调度 辽河流域 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程] P338[天文地球—水文科学]