一次漏报极端雷暴大风特征及原因多源观测资料综合分析  

Analysis of Characteristics and Cause of a Missing-Forecast Extreme Thunderstorm Gale Weather Process Based on Multi-source Observation Data

作　　者：李国翠[1,2,3] 吴翀[2] 钤伟妙[1] 段宇辉 曹越 LI Guocui;WU Chong;QIAN Weimiao;Duan Yuhui;Cao Yue(Shijiazhuang Meteorological Bureau,Shijiazhuang 050081;State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences,Beijing 100081;Key Laboratory of Meteorology and Ecological Environment of Hebei Province,Shijiazhuang 050021;Hebei Meteorological Observatory,Shijiazhuang 050021)

机构地区：[1]石家庄市气象局,石家庄050081 [2]中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室,北京100081 [3]河北省气象与生态环境重点实验室,石家庄050021 [4]河北省气象台,石家庄050021

出　　处：《气象科技》2025年第2期222-234,共13页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(2023LASW-B02);河北省气象局项目(23ky14、23zc16);河北省气象局暴雨强对流野外观测项目;衡水市气象局短临预报技术研究创新团队项目;石家庄市科技计划项目(2414909703);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J025)资助。

摘　　要：2023年7月24日河北中部出现一次雷暴大风强对流天气过程,过程极端性强,6个国家站的极大风速突破历史极值或位居历史前两名,其中元氏最大达30.6 m/s。此过程大尺度天气背景为高空弱西北气流,天气系统不明显,导致中、短期天气预报出现漏报。利用ERA5再分析、双偏振天气雷达、风廓线雷达、L波段探空和分钟级地面观测等多源高分辨率观测资料,对此次极端雷暴大风过程的演变特征及其成因进行分析,结果表明:①雷暴大风过程属于高空干冷平流弱强迫型,存在低层暖、高空弱冷的不稳定大气层结,对流有效位能1544.8 J/kg,沙氏指数-4.31℃,850 hPa与500 hPa温度差超30℃,垂直风切变中等略偏弱。②单峰值型和双峰值型前阶段大风具有突发性强、瞬时风速大、持续时间短等特征,对应雷达回波分为风暴单体、弓形回波、阵风锋3类,表现为差分反射率因子(Z _(DR))柱、差分相移率(K _(DP))柱、相关系数(C _(C))小值和17 m/s以上的大风速核、速度模糊和中层径向辐合等特征;地面气象要素表现为中心气压≥1006 hPa的雷暴高压和1 h变温≤-3.5℃的地面冷池,对应气压陡升、气温骤降、零度层高度谷值和弱降水。双峰值型后阶段大风强度弱、影响范围小且持续时间短,不伴有降水或仅有微弱降水,对应弱雷达回波型,是由主体雷达回波后的再生弱回波和冷池密度流共同造成的。③极端大风也与观测站迁站有一定关系。There was an extreme thunderstorm gale weather event that occurred in central Hebei Province on 24 July 2023,which was missed in forecasting.The maximum wind speed at 6 national observation stations broke the record for the maximum value or ranked in the top two,with the maximum wind speed being 30.6 m/s,which appeared at the Yuanshi station.The large-scale weather background of this event was the weak northwest wind at the upper air weather chart,and the weather system was not obvious,which led to the failure of forecasting the thunderstorm gale disaster in the middle and short-term weather forecast.Using ERA5 reanalysis data,dual-polarisation weather radar,wind profile radar,L-band radiosonde,minute-level ground encryption observation station data,and other multi-source high spatial and temporal resolution observation data,the evolution characteristics and causes of the extreme thunderstorm gale weather event are analysed.The results show that:(1)The process of thunderstorm wind belonged to the high-altitude dry and cold advection weak forcing type,and there was an unstable atmospheric junction of low-level warm and upper-altitude weak cold.The CAPE value was 1544.8 J/kg,SI was-4.31℃,and the temperature difference between 850 hPa and 500 hPa exceeded 30℃,with the vertical wind shears of 0-3 km and 0-6 km being moderate-to-slightly weak.(2)The wind speed of the single-peak and the first stage of the double-peak were characterised by strong sudden onset,large instantaneous wind speed,and short duration.The corresponding radar echoes of the convection system included three categories:storm cells,bow echoes,and gust front,which were characterised by Z _(DR) column,K _(DP) column,low C _(C) value,large wind core above 17 m/s,velocity ambiguity,and radial convergence of 3-8 km in the middle layer.The surface meteorological elements were thunderstorm high pressure with centre pressure above 1006 hPa and surface cold pool with temperature variations of one hour less than-3.5℃,corresponding to the steep rise of pr

关 键 词：极端雷暴大风 漏报 弓形回波 阵风锋 Z_(DR)柱 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]