山西地区降水性层状云中过冷水的分布特征及诊断预报  

Distribution Characteristics and Forecast Diagnosis of Supercooled Water in Precipitating Stratiform Clouds in Shanxi Province

作　　者：杨晓 孙鸿娉 李培仁 杨俊梅 郝奎 YANG Xiao;SUN Hongping;LI Peiren;YANG Junmei;HAO Kui(Shanxi Weather Modification Office Center,Taiyuan 030032;Shanxi Key Laboratory of Weather Modification,Taiyuan 030032;Wutaishan Cloud Physics Field Experiment Base,CMA,Xinzhou 035515;Meteorological Society of Shanxi Province,Taiyuan 030000;Taiyuan Aviation Instrument Company,Taiyuan 030000)

机构地区：[1]山西省人工影响天气中心,太原030032 [2]人工影响天气山西省重点实验室,太原030032 [3]中国气象局五台山云物理野外科学试验基地,忻州035515 [4]山西省气象学会,太原030000 [5]太原航空仪表有限公司,太原030000

出　　处：《气象科技》2025年第2期247-258,共12页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中央引导地方科技发展资金项目(YDZJSX2021B017);山西省气象局面上项目(SXKMSDW20246766);中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2024J029、CXFZ2025Q015);中国气象局成都信息工程大学人工影响天气联合研究中心2024年开放课题(2024GDRY010)资助。

摘　　要：过冷水是层状云人工增雨潜力的重要判定指标,利用2017—2022年共32架次的飞机探测资料,统计研究不同大气环境下过冷水的分布特征,并基于这些特征探索山西地区云中过冷水含量的诊断预报方法。结果表明:①过冷水含量大部分值集中在0.06~0.22 g·m^(-3),平均值为0.18 g·m^(-3),其概率密度分布为明显的单峰正偏态分布,随着过冷水含量的增加累积分布函数的增长速率不断减小。②过冷水区主要出现在3589~4667 m,距0℃层大约1011~2316 m,温度区间是-8.52~-3.52℃,湿度在86.68%~100%范围内,且过冷水区以上升气流为主,这些区域内过冷水含量也都相对较大。③过冷水含量随着距0℃层高度的减小、温度的增加、湿度的增大以及云中上升气流的增强,呈现增长的趋势。④利用多项式拟合的方法获得了过冷水含量与温度、湿度、距0℃层高度以及垂直风速的关系,对比显示,过冷水含量较小时反演结果偏大,而过冷水含量较大时反演结果偏小,但是从两者的整体分布上来看,存在明显的正相关。个例反演结果显示预报过冷水区域的准确率均大于65%,预报值略大于观测值。这一诊断预报过冷水的方法一定程度可以定性的判断某些条件下过冷水含量的大小,寻找过冷水及丰沛区域,为科学开展人工影响天气作业提供指导。Supercooled water is a crucial parameter for assessing the potential for weather modification in stratiform clouds.Utilising data from 32 aircrafts detected by the Airborne Meteorological Detection Device from 2017 to 2022,we conduct a statistical analysis of the altitude characteristics where supercooled water is present,along with temperature,humidity,vertical wind speed,and other atmospheric parameters.We also examine the variation of supercooled water content in relation to these environmental factors.Based on these findings,we develop a diagnostic forecasting method for supercooled water content in clouds over the Shanxi region.The study reveals the following insights:(1)The supercooled water content obtained by the Airborne Meteorological Detection Device shows good agreement with the liquid water content detected by the Cloud Particle Probe(when the temperature is below 0℃,the liquid water content detected by the CDP is the supercooled water content),which indicates that both instruments are better at detecting the supercooled water content in the cloud.(2)The supercooled water content predominantly ranges from 0.06 to 0.22 g·m^(-3),with an average value of 0.18 g·m^(-3).Its probability density function(PDF)exhibits a distinct single-peaked normal skewed distribution,and the cumulative distribution function(CDF)growth rate decreases as the supercooled water content increases.(3)The supercooled water region is predominantly found between 3589 and 4667 metres,approximately 1011 to 2316 metres above the 0℃isotherm.The temperature range is from-8.52℃to-3.52℃,humidity levels vary between 86.68%and 100%,and the supercooled water area is predominantly influenced by updrafts.(4)The supercooled water content tends to increase with decreasing altitude from the 0℃isotherm,rising temperature,increasing relative humidity,and stronger updrafts within the clouds.(5)The relationships between the content of supercooled water and various factors such as temperature,relative humidity,altitude above the 0℃isothe

关 键 词：过冷水 分布特征 预报诊断 

分 类 号：P412.24[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]