1979—2023年广西全州地区褐飞虱物候期变化特点及其对气候变化的响应  

Characteristics of Phenological Changes of Nilaparvata Lugens and Its Response to Climate Change in Quanzhou,Guangxi from 1979 to 2023

作　　者：唐广田[1] 黄祎萱 邹丽霞[1] 李冰兰[1] 黄国靓 莫雁雯 TANG Guangtian;HUANG Yixuan;ZOU Lixia;LI Binglan;HUANG Guojing;MO Yanwen(Guilin Meteorological Bureau,Guangxi,Guilin 541001;Guangxi Meteorological Information Center,Nanning 530022;Yangshuo City Meteorological Bureau,Guangxi,Guilin 541001)

机构地区：[1]广西桂林市气象局,桂林541001 [2]广西区气象信息中心,南宁530022 [3]广西阳朔县气象局,阳朔541999

出　　处：《气象科技》2025年第2期271-284,共14页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：广西自然科学基金项目(2023GXNSFAA026515)资助。

摘　　要：基于广西全州地区1979—2023年褐飞虱资料及温度、降水要素,利用Sen’s斜率、小波分析、曼-肯德尔(M-K)趋势及突变检验等方法,分析该地区45 a来褐飞虱物候期的变化特征及对气候变化的响应。结果显示:①始见期以0.43 d·a^(-1)(p<0.05)呈提前趋势,终见期及停留时间分别以0.42 d·a^(-1)、0.85 d·a^(-1)(p<0.01)呈推迟或延长趋势,各物候期未发生变异,随时间变化稳定。②始见期、终见期及停留时间分别于2009年、2003年及2007年发生突变,并存在多个周期变化特征,始见期变化的第一主周期为26 a,而终见期与停留时间的第一主周期为28 a。③春、夏、秋季平均气温增温极显著,并分别于2001年、2021年及2012年发生突变。季节性降水年际波动大,变化趋势不明显。④始见期对春季温度响应显著,暖春会使始见期提前;终见期与秋季温度要素呈正相关,暖秋会使褐飞虱终见期推迟;暖春及暖秋都会延长褐飞虱的停留时间。始见期与3月降水量呈负相关;终见期与11月降水量及日数则呈正相关。Based on the data of brown planthopper(Nilaparvata lugens(Stal))and meteorological factors including temperature and precipitation in the Quanzhou region of Guangxi Province from 1979 to 2023,this study utilises Sen s slope,wavelet analysis,M-K trend,and mutation testing to analyse variation characteristics of the Nilaparvata lugens’s phenological periods and its response to climate change in this region over the past 45 years.The results show that the initial appearance date shows an early trend at a rate of 0.43 days per year(p<0.05),and the final disappearance date and residence time show a delayed or prolonged trend at rates of 0.42 days per year and 0.85 days per year(p<0.01)respectively.No variation occurs in the phenological periods,and they remain relatively stable over time.The initial appearance date,final disappearance date,and duration of stay undergo mutations in 2009,2003,and 2007,respectively.There are also multiple periodic variation characteristics.The first main period of the initial appearance date is 26 years,while the first main period of the final disappearance date and duration of stay is 28 years.The average temperatures in spring,summer,and autumn have increased extremely significantly and undergo mutations in 2001,2021,and 2012,respectively.Seasonal precipitation has large inter-annual fluctuation and the change trend is not obvious.The significant increase in temperature in different seasons has a profound impact on the ecological environment.The large fluctuations in seasonal precipitation make the water environment more variable,which in turn affects the living conditions of the brown planthopper.Although the trend of precipitation change is not clear,its inter-annual variability still poses challenges to the adaptation of the brown planthopper.The initial appearance date has a highly significant response to spring temperature,and a warm spring can lead to an earlier initial appearance date.The final disappearance date is positively correlated with the autumn temperature element,and

关 键 词：褐飞虱 昆虫物候 气候变化 生态响应 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S186[农业科学—农业基础科学]