中国电子商务发展水平的区域差异及趋势预测  

Regional Differences and Trend Prediction of Development Level of E-commerce in China

作　　者：廖东声 邓秋怡 LIAO Dongsheng;DENG Qiuyi(School of Management,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530006,China;School of Economic,Guangxi Minzu University,Nanning 530008,China)

机构地区：[1]广西民族大学管理学院,南宁530006 [2]广西民族大学经济学院,南宁530008

出　　处：《科技和产业》2025年第7期145-152,共8页Science Technology and Industry

基　　金：陆海经济一体化协同创新中心2022年度科研项目(2022ZD02);广西社科基金(24JLF004);广西教育科学“十四五”规划2025年度重大课题(2025JD30);国家社会科学基金(22XJY003)。

摘　　要：利用Kernel密度估计、Dagum基尼系数及分解法和灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对中国电子商务发展情况进行深入研究。结果显示:中国电子商务发展水平存在地区内和地区间的不平衡,东部地区内部差异较大,东部与西部地区间的差异最显著;不同地区的经济发展水平、人口规模、城镇化水平、社会消费水平和对外开放程度影响着电商发展水平和区域差异。预测显示未来中国电子商务仍将持续增长,但是短时间内现有的东、中、西梯度分布格局不会改变。An in-depth study on the development of E-commerce in China was conducted using Kernel density estimation,Dagum Gini coefficient and decomposition method,and grey prediction GM(1,1)model.The conclusion shows that there is an imbalance in the development level of E-commerce in China within and between regions,with significant differences within the eastern region and the most significant differences between the eastern and western regions.The level of economic development,population size,urbanization,social consumption,and degree of openness in different regions affect the level of E-commerce development and regional differences.The forecast shows that China’s E-commerce will continue to grow in the future,but the existing gradient distribution pattern of east,west,central and western regions will not change in the short term.

关 键 词：电子商务 动态演变 区域差异 趋势预测 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济]