中国参与区域经济合作的贸易及福利效应  

The Trade and Welfare Effects of China's Participation in Regional Economic

作　　者：马野青[1] 庄金凤 范子杰[2] MAYe-qing;ZHUANG Jin-feng;FAN Zi-jie(Business School,Nanjing University;Institute of African Studies,Hunan University)

机构地区：[1]南京大学商学院 [2]湖南大学非洲研究院

出　　处：《中国工业经济》2025年第3期22-40,共19页China Industrial Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“基于生产网络结构一般均衡模型的中国扩大进口经济效应评估及政策优化研究”(批准号72173039)。

摘　　要：构建面向全球的高标准自贸区网络是中国更高水平对外开放的重要战略举措。本文构建具备生产率、市场需求、市场进入等多重企业异质性及宏观福利的一般均衡模型,同时考虑中间品与最终品两个市场,在此基础上量化分析了六种区域贸易协定的宏观贸易及福利效应,并分解为微观层面的中国对外贸易利益,有效解决宏观经济冲击与微观企业贸易表现割裂问题,提供打通宏微观分析的贸易政策评价新范式。研究发现:关税削减对最终品和中间品市场的影响在竞争效应、规模梯度效应、内销损失等方面存在显著差异;投入产出联系会导致关税的供应链传导和两市场协同放大,产生关税溢出效应。六种区域贸易协定下,最终品企业淘汰率和内销损失高于中间品企业,且前者规模梯度效应更明显;贸易利益主要集中在大规模和区域内企业;各协定均正面提升中国居民福利,对贸易摩擦负面效应有缓解效果但无法完全抵消。本文揭示了中间品与最终品关税的作用机制,明确中间品贸易自由化及新质生产力发展对贸易增长及福利改善的重要性,为优化开放布局、平衡利益分配、培育外贸新动能提供了政策启示。Building a globally oriented high-standard free trade zone network constitutes a crucial strategic initiative for China's higher-level opening-up.This paper develops a general equilibrium model that integrates micro-level firm heterogeneity in productivity,market demand,market entry,and macro-level welfare,based on tariff variation patterns and Chinese firms'export distribution.Our model explicitly incorporates input-output linkages between intermediate and final goods markets to capture cross-market tariff spillover effects.Using this framework,this paper quantitatively assesses the macro trade and welfare effects of six regional trade agreements.Existing literature rarely bridges macro-micro analytical dimensions in trade policy evaluation.This paper establishes a novel paradigm by constructing a micro-founded analytical framework through detailed characterization of Chinese firms'sales scale and export patterns,enabling both aggregation of macro effects and decomposition of firm-level trade benefit variations,effectively resolving the disconnect between macroeconomic shocks and micro-level trade performance.In the quantitative analysis,this paper first simulates four scenarios of 10% tariff reductions(intermediate goods,final goods,both markets,and undifferentiated products)to validate model properties.Furthermore,it designs counterfactual scenarios reflecting actual tariff changes under regional trade agreements to quantify the trade and welfare effects of agreements,while evaluating their response effects to trade frictions.This paper has two main findings.First,tariff reductions exhibit distinct impacts on final and intermediate goods markets in competitive effects,scale gradient effects,and domestic sales losses.Input-output linkages induce supply chain transmission and cross-market amplification of tariffs,generating spillover effects.Second,final goods enterprises experience higher elimination rates and domestic sales losses than intermediate goods producers,with more pronounced scale gradient effects.Tr

关 键 词：区域贸易协定 异质性企业模型 对外贸易利益 福利效应 

分 类 号：F125[经济管理—世界经济]