2004-2019年我国棘球蚴病时空分布特征分析  

Spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of echinococcosis in China from 2004 to 2019

作　　者：田彦欣 王继隆 古晒买 李燕回 周雅菊 张强 崔倩倩 TIAN Yanxin;WANG Jilong;GU Shaimai;LI Yanhui;ZHOU Yaju;ZHANG Qiang;CUI Qianqian(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Ningxia University,Yinchuan,Ningxia 750021,China)

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学数学统计学院,宁夏银川750021

出　　处：《热带医学杂志》2025年第2期253-257,F0004,共6页Journal of Tropical Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(12461100,12001305)。

摘　　要：目的分析和探讨2004-2019年我国棘球蚴病的时空分布特征,为确定我国棘球蚴病的重点防控区域及制定有效的防控策略提供参考依据。方法通过公共卫生科学数据中心,收集和整理2004-2019年我国棘球蚴病报告病例资料,对不同地区、不同时间及不同人群特征的棘球蚴病报告病例进行描述性统计分析。采用空间自相关法进行空间分布特征及聚集性分析。结果2004-2019年我国内地共计报告棘球蚴病病例49411例,98.2%(48524/49411)的报告病例数集中在西北地区,新疆、四川、青海、甘肃、宁夏、西藏、内蒙古等7省(区),其中新疆维吾尔自治区报告病例占总报告病例的39.9%(19717/49411)。棘球蚴病患者年龄分布在30~<50岁,且感染人群正逐步扩张至青少年。通过对棘球蚴病报告发病数的Moran's I值进行分析,发现在2004-2019年,我国棘球蚴病报告发病数存在正向空间自相关性。然而,2004、2007、2008年的数据未发现显著的空间聚集性,这意味着这3年空间分布是随机分布的或者是均匀分布的。结论我国2004-2019年棘球蚴病发病率呈逐年上升趋势,高聚集区主要集中分布在西北地区,需重点防控。疾病有一定的扩散,应尽早管理传染源,对流行区进行普查、普治,广大群众应注意饮食和个人防护。Objective To analyze and explore the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of echinococcosis in China from 2004 to 2019,and to provide a reference for determining the key prevention and control areas of echinococcosis in China and formulating effective prevention and control strategies.Methods The data on reported cases of echinococcosis in China from 2004 to 2019 were collected and sorted out through the Public Health Science Data Center,and descriptive statistical analysis was performed on reported cases of echinococcosis in different regions,at different times and with different population characteristics.Spatial distribution characteristics and aggregation were analyzed by spatial autocorrelation.Results A total of 49411 cases of echinococcosis were reported in China from 2004 to 2019,and 98.2%(48524/49411)of the reported cases were concentrated in the northwest region,including Xinjiang,Sichuan,Qinghai,Gansu,Ningxia,Tibet,and Inner Mongolia.Among them,cases reported in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region accounted for 39.9%(19717/49411)of the total reported cases.The age distribution of patients with echinococcosis was 30-<50 years old,and the infected population was gradually expanding to adolescents.By analyzing the Moran's I value of the reported incidence of echinococcosis,it was found that there was a positive spatial autocorrelation in the reported incidence of echinococcosis in China from 2004 to 2019.However,no significant spatial clustering was found in the data of 2004,2007,and 2008,which indicated that the spatial distribution in these three years was random or uniform.Conclusions The incidence of echinococcosis in China from 2004 to 2019 showed an increasing trend year by year,and the high-aggregation areas were mainly concentrated in the northwest region,which requires key prevention and control.The disease had a certain degree of spread,and the source of infection should be managed as soon as possible,and a census and general treatment should be carried out in the epidemic areas.The general

关 键 词：棘球蚴病 时空分布特征 聚集性 上升趋势 

分 类 号：R532.32[医药卫生—内科学]