文化多样性、国家政治风险与出口贸易增长——以中国-东盟区域为例  

Cultural diversity,national political risks,and export trade growth:A case study on China-ASEAN region

作　　者：韦永贵 秦斌 李静怡[4] WEI Yonggui;QIN Bin;LI Jingyi(School of Economics and Management,Wenzhou University of Technology,Wenzhou 325027,China;Guangxi(ASEAN)Research Center of Finance and Economics,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China;Guangxi Key Laboratory of Seaward Economic Intelligent System Analysis and Decision-making,Guangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanning 530003,China;School of Economics,Guangxi University,Nanning 530001,China)

机构地区：[1]温州理工学院经济与管理学院,温州325027 [2]广西财经学院广西(东盟)财经研究中心,南宁530003 [3]广西财经学院广西向海经济智能系统分析与决策重点实验室,南宁530003 [4]广西大学经济学院,南宁530001

出　　处：《世界地理研究》2025年第3期54-69,共16页World Regional Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(22BJL096);广西哲学社会科学规划课题(20FJL004);向海经济研究院及陆海经济一体化协同创新中心项目(2022YB15)。

摘　　要：东盟是中国对外经贸合作的重点区域和优先方向,研究东盟内部文化多样性与国家政治风险之间的关联并探究二者对出口贸易增长的效应机制,对百年未有之大变局下推动中国加快构建双循环新发展格局具有重要意义。以中国-东盟区域为研究对象,对东盟国家的文化多样性指数和政治风险指数进行测度并探究二者之间的关联,研究发现:①东盟国家具有较高的文化多样性,且呈现出赤道附近海岛型或海岛-半岛型国家文化多样性高于半岛型和内陆型国家的地域空间分布格局。②东盟各国面临的政治风险存在显著差异,印度尼西亚和中南半岛国家的政治风险较高,文莱、新加坡等国家的政治风险较低;文化多样性与政治风险之间存在明显的耦合协调性,两者之间关联性较强。进一步地,基于1992—2017年国别数据实证研究文化多样性对出口贸易增长的影响效应和作用机制,研究发现:①东盟国家文化多样性对中国出口东盟具有显著的抑制效应,且文化多样性对出口贸易的影响是非线性的;②机制检验发现,国家政治风险在文化多样性影响出口贸易中发挥着重要的中介效应。据此,中国与东盟开展经贸合作时要重视文化的作用,注重挖掘文化的经济潜能;同时,也要强化国际合作风险意识,建立健全风险应对机制。ASEAN is a key region and priority direction for China's foreign economic and trade cooperation.Studying the relationship between cultural diversity and national political risks within ASEAN,and exploring thier effect mechanism on export trade,is of great significance.This paper takes the China-ASEAN region as the research object,to measure the cultural diversity index and political risk index of ASEAN countries,and explores the correlation between the two.It is found that:①ASEAN countries have high cultural diversity,and show a regional spatial distribution pattern where the cultural diversity of island or island semi island countries near the equator is higher than that of peninsula and inland countries;②The political risks faced by ASEAN countries are significant different,with high political risks in Indonesia and countries on the Indochinese Peninsula,and low political risks in Brunei,Singapore,ect.Cultural diversity and political risks have a clear coupling and coordination,and the correlation between the two is strong.Furthermore,based on the country-level data from 1992 to 2017,we empirically research on the impact and action mechanism of cultural diversity on export trade,and find that:①Cultural diversity in ASEAN countries has a significant inhibitory effect on China's exports to ASEAN,but the impact of cultural diversity on export trade is non-linear;②The mechanism test shows that national political risks play an important mediating role in the impact of cultural diversity on export trade.Therefore,China should pay attention to the role of culture in its economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN,and pay attention to unlocking the economic potential of culture.At the same time,it should strengthen its awareness of international cooperation risks and establish a sound risk response mechanism.

关 键 词：文化多样性 国家政治风险 出口贸易 耦合协调度 中介效应 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]