美国情报界领导人评估实践及效果  

Practices and Effects of Leadership Assessment of the United States Intelligence Community

作　　者：陈晴 彭亚平 孙路明 Chen Qing;Peng Yaping;Sun Luming(Information Engineering University,Zhengzhou 450001)

机构地区：[1]信息工程大学,郑州450001

出　　处：《情报杂志》2025年第4期8-14,共7页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：2024年度教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目“大国竞争时代美国知华派学者的战略认知影响力研究”(编号:24YJAGJW003)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]探究美国情报界领导人评估实践及效果,分析其实践路径,挖掘理论支撑,以期将领导人评估纳入情报分析的视野,丰富情报分析的理论与实践。[研究方法]通过文献分析、历史分析和定性分析等方法,梳理美国情报界领导人评估实践发展,阐释领导人评估工作的效用和局限。[研究结果/结论]美国情报界领导人评估工作经历了战时萌芽、明确方向、蓬勃发展和分散重组四个阶段,主要形成基于领导人传记事实的定性分析、文本资料的定量研究、生动信息的测量评价、决策反应的情境构建和间接关联的综合评估五种方法。美国情报界领导人评估在战略预警、危机管理和外交斡旋中发挥重要作用,但也存在难以确保准确、易被决策者忽视、信息及产品共享受限等局限。[Research purpose]This paper endeavors to explore the practices and effectiveness of leadership assessment within the U.S.intelligence community(USIC),analyze its practical pathways,and uncover the underlying theoretical support.The ultimate goal is to integrate leadership assessment into the realm of intelligence analysis,thereby enriching the theoretical and practical frameworks of intelligence analysis.[Research method]Utilizing methods such as literature analysis,historical analysis,and qualitative analysis,this paper systematically reviews the evolution of leadership assessment practices within the USIC.It delves into the utility and limitations of leadership assessment in practical applications.[Research result/conclusion]The leadership assessment within the USIC has evolved through four distinct stages:sprouting in wartime,defining direction,flourishing vigorously,dispersion and reorganization.The USIC mainly use five fundamental pathways:qualitative analysis based on leaders'biographical facts,quantitative research on textual materials,measurement and evaluation of vivid information,scenario-based decision-making responses,and comprehensive assessment of indirect correlations.The leadership assessment plays a crucial role in strategic early warning,crisis management,and diplomatic mediation.However,it also faces limitations such as hard to ensure accuracy,easy neglect by policymakers,and restricted sharing of information and products.

关 键 词：美国 情报界 领导人评估 情报分析 战略预警 危机管理 

分 类 号：G359[文化科学—情报学]