从微弱信号分析看灰色地带威胁预警情报分析困境的应对策略  

Study on Coping Strategies of Gray Zone Threat Warning Analysis Predicament From the Perspective of Weak Signal Analysis

作　　者：陈烨 马晓娟 Chen Ye;Ma Xiaojuan(National University of Defense Technology,Nanjing 210039)

机构地区：[1]国防科技大学外国语学院,南京210039

出　　处：《情报杂志》2025年第4期15-22,30,共9页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[研究目的]厘清灰色地带威胁预警分析面临的困境,探讨微弱信号分析对灰色地带预警的策略启示。[研究方法]通过对微弱信号相关研究的梳理,剖析微弱信号研究与预警分析面临的不确定性特质之间的内在契合性,从分析模式、分析流程和方法对策等角度探究在预警分析中引入微弱信号分析的作用。[研究结果/结论]引入微弱信号研究对灰色地带威胁预警分析的策略启示表现在:一是从分析模式来看,要建立基于微弱信号分析的模式引领,由筹划控制模式向探索赋能模式转变;二是从分析流程来看,需要建立以目标为中心,持续实现微弱信号迭代分析的系统分析,改变数据到情报的线性过程;三是从方法层面来看,化静态分析为发散动态性分析,强调智力融合的重要性,是应对复杂模糊性问题的重要抓手。[Research purpose]The paper aims to explore the gray zone warning by deliberating on the predicament facing gray zone warning as well as the strategies that weak signal studies can provide to cope with the challenge.[Research method]Through revewing the research on weak signal,the paper clarifies the consistency between weak signal issues and the uncertainties facing warning intelligence analysis,as well as the role that weak signal analysis can play in optimizing analytic pattern,process and methods of warning analysis.[Research result/conclusion]Weak signal analysis can contribute to gray zone warning as the follows.Firstly,it needs to build up an analytical mode led by weak signal analysis,shifting from planning and controlling to discovering and empowerment.Secondly,it should construct a target-centric analytical process to achieve constant iteration of weak signal analysis on a systematic basis by altering the linear process from data to intelligence.Thirdly,it must shift from static to dynamic analysis,focusing on the importance of collective analysis in order to cope with complexity as well as ambiguity.

关 键 词：预警情报 情报分析 灰色地带威胁 微弱信号分析 

分 类 号：G353.1[文化科学—情报学]