突发事件网络舆情的演化规律研究  

A Study on the Evolutionary Patterns of Online Public Opinion in Emergency Events

作　　者：李一[1] Li Yi(Yanshan University,Qinhuangdao 066000)

机构地区：[1]燕山大学公共管理学院,秦皇岛066000

出　　处：《情报杂志》2025年第4期145-152,共8页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[研究目的]突发事件与相应问责结果都将引发网络舆情。当前,学界鲜有研究同时关照事故本身带来的“事故舆情”与问责结果带来的“问责舆情”。因此,文章期望通过分析“双重舆情”来厘清突发事件网络舆情的演化规律及其内在机制,助推地方政府网络舆情治理能力建设。[研究方法]研究通过网络爬虫收集了2017-2021年间24起突发事件的相关微博评论,利用LDA主题模型和文本编码分别对“事故舆情”和“问责舆情”的文本演化规律进行分析。最后,从公众认知视角出发廓清文本背后的演化机制。[研究结果/结论]研究结果表明,“事故舆情”持续向突发事件相关线索跳跃和拓展,最终使舆情的议题结构高度复杂;“问责舆情”映现了在固有观念影响下网民态度的消极走向。突发事件网络舆情在文本上的演化规律是“危机归因冲动”“认知立场分歧”“问责期望差异”共同作用的结果。研究结果为突发事件网络舆情的管理提供了理论参考。[Research purpose]Emergency events and the corresponding accountability outcomes can both trigger online public opinion.Currently,few studies simultaneously address the"incident public opinion"generated by the incident itself and the"accountability public opinion"arising from the accountability outcomes.This paper aims to clarify the evolutionary patterns and underlying mechanisms of online public opinion in emergency events by analyzing the"dual public opinion",thereby contributing to the capacity building of local governments in online public opinion management.[Research method]The study collects relevant Weibo comments on 24 emergency events between 2017 and 2021 through web scraping.The LDA topic model and text coding are used to analyze the textual evolution patterns of"incident public opinion"and"accountability public opinion"respectively.The study ultimately clarifies the underlying evolutionary mechanisms behind the text from the perspective of public cognition.[Research result/conclusion]The results indicate that"incident public opinion"continuously leaps and expands to related clues of the emergency event,ultimately leading to a highly complex issue structure of the public opinion.The"accountability public opinion"reflects the negative direction of public attitudes influenced by entrenched perceptions.The textual evolution of online public opinion in emergency events is driven by the combined effects of"crisis attribution impulse","cognitive stance divergence",and"expectation differences in accountability".The findings provide theoretical references for managing online public opinion in emergency events.

关 键 词：网络舆情 舆情管理 舆情演化 问责舆情 事故舆情 突发事件 

分 类 号：C912.63[经济管理] G206[社会学]