基于CMIP6未来情景的伊犁河流域地质灾害危险性评估预测  

Geological disaster hazard assessment and prediction in the Ili River Basin based on CMIP6 future scenarios

作　　者：陈世泷 孟庆凯 戴勇[1,3] 杨立强 吴晗 CHEN Shilong;MENG Qingkai;DAI Yong;YANG Liqiang;WU Han(State Key Laboratory of Mountain Hazards and Engineering Resilience,Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Chengdu 610299,Sichuan,China;College of Geophysics,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China;College of Civil Engineering and Water Resources,Qinghai University,Xining 810016,Qinghai,China;College of Nuclear Technology and Automation Engineering,Chengdu University of Technology,Chengdu 610059,Sichuan,China)

机构地区：[1]山地自然灾害与工程安全全国重点实验室,中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所,四川成都610299 [2]成都理工大学地球物理学院,四川成都610059 [3]青海大学土木水利学院,青海西宁810016 [4]成都理工大学核技术与自动化工程学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2025年第4期599-611,共13页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：第三次新疆综合科学考察项目(2022xjkk0600);国家自然科学基金项目(42371091);中国科学院特别资助项目资助。

摘　　要：为探究未来近期气候变化对伊犁河流域地质灾害影响,选用第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6,CMIP6)不同情景气候数据,分析2021—2040年未来气候变化特征,采用加权信息量-随机森林模型,开展崩滑、泥石流等地质灾害危险性评估预测。结果表明:(1)崩滑灾害高、极高危险区主要分布在伊宁县北部低山丘陵区及尼勒克县南部、新源县北部中山丘陵区等,泥石流灾害高、极高危险区主要分布在霍城县科古琴山北部、昭苏县南部、和静县及尼勒克县东部中高山区。(2)2021—2040年伊犁河流域将呈现气温升高、降水增加趋势,年均气温上升最大约1.53℃,降水量增幅约19.3mm。(3)未来不同共享社会经济路径SSP126、SSP245、SSP370、SSP585情景下地质灾害高危险区面积扩大,伊宁县南部、新源县北部及尼勒克县西南区域的崩滑灾害,霍尔果斯市北部、伊宁县的泥石流灾害危险程度进一步加剧,最大增幅分别为17.31%、8.77%。该研究结果为科学应对未来气候变化下伊犁河流域防灾减灾提供重要参考。To assess the impact of future climate change on geological hazard zoning in the Ili River Basin,Xinjiang,China,climate data from different scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)were selected to analyze climate change characteristics under various shared socioeconomic pathway(SSP)scenarios from 2021 to 2040.The information quantity-random forest model was employed to conduct the geological hazard assessment and generate a prediction map.The results indicate that:(1)High and extremely high hazard areas are primarily concentrated in northern Yining County,southern Nilka County,and northern Xinyuan County in the middle mountainous hilly regions;debris flow hazard areas are mainly located in southern Zhaosu County,the northern region of Keguqin Mountain in Huocheng County,Hejing County,and the middleto-high mountainous areas in eastern Nilka County.(2)From 2021 to 2040,the Ili River Basin is projected to experience a general increase in temperature and precipitation,with a maximum annual average temperature rise of approximately 1.53℃and a maximum precipitation increase of about 19.3 mm.(3)Under future SSP126,SSP245,SSP370,and SSP585 scenarios,high-hazard areas for landslides and rockfalls are expected to expand.The severity of landslides in southern Yining County,northern Xinyuan County,and southwestern Nilka County,as well as debris flows in northern Khorgas City and Yining County,is anticipated to worsen,with maximum increases of 17.31%and 8.77%,respectively.The findings of this study provide valuable insights for future disaster prevention and mitigation efforts in the Ili River Basin.

关 键 词：CMIP6 地质灾害 危险性预测 气候变化 伊犁河流域 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]