基于MaxEnt模型的安康烟草高产优质区分布模拟  

Simulation Analysis of High-yield and High-quality Tobacco Distribution in Ankang Based on MaxEnt Model

作　　者：张玎 张旭 李小芳[2] 王智慧 赵鹏 张文朝 刘海轮 马翎健[1] ZHANG Ding;ZHANG Xu;LI Xiaofang;WANG Zhihui;ZHAO Peng;ZHANG Wenchao;LIU Hailun;MA Lingjian(College of Agronomy,Northwest A&F University,Yangling Shaanxi 712100,China;Ankang Meteorological Bureau,Ankang Shaanxi 725000,China;Shaanxi Province Tobacco Company Ankang City Branch,Ankang Shaanxi 725000,China)

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学农学院,陕西杨凌712100 [2]安康市气象局,陕西安康725000 [3]陕西省烟草公司安康市公司,陕西安康725000

出　　处：《西北农业学报》2025年第4期771-778,共8页Acta Agriculturae Boreali-occidentalis Sinica

基　　金：安康烤烟立体布局构建及综合栽培技术配套研究与推广(ZY-2021-05)。

摘　　要：为解决安康市整体上等烟比例不高、种植布局不尽合理的问题,采用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)结合地理信息系统(GIS技术)对19个气候因子和3个地形因子进行模拟,将安康市烟草适生区域进行等级划分。根据初次模拟结果筛选出因子贡献率高且相关性低的5个因子再次进行模拟,其中包括2个地形因子和3个气候因子。结果显示:影响安康市烟草高产优质生产的主要环境因子是昼夜温差月均值(bio2)和最暖月最高温(bio5),bio2的最适宜区间为8.90~9.45℃,bio5的最适宜区间为27.54~29.70℃;其次是最干月降水量(bio14)、高程(dem)、坡度。根据最终模拟结果,确定分区中断值,将安康烟草适生区域从优至劣划分为Ⅰ、Ⅱ、Ⅲ、Ⅳ4个等级,其中Ⅰ级产区主要包括:旬阳县、白河县和汉滨区,平利县广佛镇、镇坪县曾溪镇。To address the challenges associated with the low proportion of high-grade tobacco in Ankang and the lack of optimal planting layout overall,this study used the Maximum Entropy Model(MaxEnt)in conjunction with Geographic Information System(GIS)technology to simulate 19 climatic factor variables and three topographic factor.This simulation was used to classify the suitable tobacco-growing regions in Ankang into different levels.Based on the initial simulation results,five factors with high contribution rate and low correlation were selected for a second round of simulation,which included two terrain factors and three climate factors.The predictive findings underscored the critical role played by two key environmental variables in limiting both the yield and quality of Ankang tobacco-namely,the monthly mean diurnal range(bio2)and max temperature of warmest month(bio5).The optimal temperature range for bio2 was determined to be 8.90-9.45℃,and the optimal temperature range for bio5 fell within 27.54-29.70℃.Additionally,the precipitation of the driest month(bio14),altitude,and slope were also important factors.According to the final simulation results,the interruption values are determined to classify the suitable areas for tobacco cultivation in Ankang into four grades from best to worst,namely,Level I,Level II,Level III,and Level IV.Level I production areas mainly include Xunyang county,Baihe county,and Hanbin district,as well as Guangfo town in Pingli county and Zengxi town in Zhenping county.

关 键 词：安康烟草 MAXENT 适生性 生态因子 

分 类 号：S572[农业科学—烟草工业]