保供稳价目标下大蒜价格异常波动的产销平衡机制分析  

Analysis of Production and Marketing Balance Mechanism of Garlic Price Abnormal Fluctuation under Target of Stable Supply and Price

作　　者：安民 曹姗姗 路洪涛 孔繁涛 刘继芳[1] AN Min;CAO Shanshan;LU Hongtao;KONG Fantao;LIU Jifang(Agricultural Information Institute of CAAS,Beijing 100081,China;Institute of Special Animal and Plant Sciences CAAS,Changchun 130112,Jilin,China;Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development,CAAS,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081 [2]中国农业科学院特产研究所,吉林长春130112 [3]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国蔬菜》2025年第4期6-13,共8页China Vegetables

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72473136);中国农业科学院科技创新工程项目(10-IAED-RC-09-2024)。

摘　　要：基于近20年我国大蒜批发市场价格数据,运用CensusX12季节调整模型、HP滤波分解模型等,全方位、多维度地对我国大蒜批发市场价格进行分解分析,探究我国大蒜价格异常波动特征及其原因。结果表明,我国大蒜受市场供需、极端天气、市场投机行为、信息不对称等因素的影响,价格异常波动时有出现,并呈现出鲜明的季节性、趋势性、周期性以及随机性特征。鉴于此,为有效平抑大蒜价格的异常波动,切实实现大蒜的保供稳价目标,建议充分发挥政府宏观调控的关键作用,成立由行业主管部门、行业协会、企业、领域专家等组成的大蒜产业专家组,通过建立产销监测制度、供需商会制度、信息发布制度等,及时研判大蒜产销形势,引导大蒜市场运行,推动大蒜产业高质量发展。Based on the wholesale market price data of garlic in China over the past 20 years,this paper conducts a comprehensive and multi-dimensional decomposition and analysis of the garlic wholesale market price in China by using the CensusX12 seasonal adjustment model,the HP filter decomposition model,etc.,and deeply explores the characteristics and causes of abnormal fluctuations in garlic prices in China.The results show that garlic prices in China are affected by factors such as market supply and demand,extreme weather,market speculation,and information asymmetry,and abnormal fluctuations occur from time to time,presenting distinct seasonal,trend,cyclical and random characteristics.In view of this,in order to effectively stabilize the abnormal fluctuations in garlic prices and truly achieve the goal of ensuring the supply and stabilizing the price of garlic,a series of targeted and practical suggestions are put forward:give full play to the key role of government macro-control,establish a garlic industry expert group composed of industry authorities,industry associations,enterprises,and field experts,and through the establishment of production and sales monitoring systems,supply and demand conferences,information release systems,etc.,timely judge the production and sales situation of garlic,guide the operation of the garlic market,and promote the high-quality development of the garlic industry.

关 键 词：大蒜 市场价格 波动 产销平衡 机制 

分 类 号：F326.13[经济管理—产业经济]