地震动预测模型评价研究——以2023年2月6日土耳其地震为例  

Evaluation of Ground Motion Model:A Case Study of the Turkey Earthquake on February 6,2023

作　　者：张博涵 王宏伟[1,2] 任叶飞 温瑞智[1,2] Zhang Bohan;Wang Hongwei;Ren Yefei;Wen Ruizhi(Key laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration,Institute of Engineering Mechanics,China Earthquake Administration,Harbin 150080,China;Key laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation,Ministry of Emergency Management,Harbin 150080,China)

机构地区：[1]中国地震局工程力学研究所地震工程与工程震动重点实验室,哈尔滨150080 [2]地震灾害防治应急管理部重点实验室,哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《震灾防御技术》2025年第1期77-85,共9页Technology for Earthquake Disaster Prevention

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFE0115700);黑龙江省自然科学基金杰出青年项目(JQ2023E002)。

摘　　要：地震动预测模型(GMM)是利用强震动记录拟合的具有一定物理意义的函数关系式,可表征强震动参数随震级、距离、场地等因素变化规律,是预估强震动参数的有效工具。以2023年2月6日土耳其连续发生的M_(W)7.8、M_(W)7.5地震为例,选用断层距200 km以内的自由场强震动记录,对比观测值与9个GMM预测值的差异,应用似然函数法和对数似然函数法对GMM进行选择、排序和加权,得到适用于该地区大震的加权预测模型,并对该预测模型的适用性进行验证。研究结果表明,适用于土耳其地区或者包括土耳其的更大区域地震的GMM预测效果较好,验证了GMM具有区域性差异;似然函数法和对数似然函数法对于GMM的选择与排序结果具有一致性;加权预测模型较好地预测了PGA随距离的衰减规律,并且对2次地震短周期反应谱的预测精确性更高;加权预测模型显著降低了2次地震事件间残差的离散性,预测结果更加稳定,说明加权预测模型提供了整体最优的预测结果,预测模型加权方案合理有效。A ground motion model(GMM)is a physically meaningful function derived from strong-motion records to characterize intensity measures based on magnitude,distance,site conditions,and other factors.It serves as an effective tool for predicting seismic intensity measures.This study examines the M_(W)7.8 and M_(W)7.5 earthquakes of February 6,2023,using strong-motion records with rupture and Joyner-Boore distances of less than 200km.The observed values are compared with nine GMMs,and the likelihood function and log-likelihood function methods are applied to select,rank,and weight the models to identify the most suitable GMM for the region and assess the applicability of predictive models.The results indicate that GMMs developed for Turkey or larger regions encompassing Turkey perform best,confirming the existence of regional variations in ground motion models.Both the likelihood function and log-likelihood function methods yield consistent rankings of GMMs.The weighted prediction model effectively captures the attenuation of peak ground acceleration with distance and demonstrates greater accuracy in predicting short-period pseudo-spectral acceleration.Additionally,it significantly reduces the dispersion of between-event residuals for both earthquakes,leading to more stable predictions.These findings confirm that the weighted prediction model provides optimal overall predictions and that the weighting scheme is both reasonable and effective.

关 键 词：地震动预测模型 土耳其地震 似然函数法 对数似然函数法 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]