基于动态碳排放强度的电碳市场耦合建模方法及市场优化机制分析  

Electricity Carbon Coupled Market Modeling Method and Market Optimization Mechanism Based on Dynamic Carbon Emission Intensity

作　　者：赵彤 李雪松 周浩 丁羽 杨斌 王文涛 王鹏[2] ZHAO Tong;LI Xuesong;ZHOU Hao;DING Yu;YANG Bin;WANG Wentao;WANG Peng(State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Nanjing 210000,China;School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]国网江苏省电力有限公司,江苏南京210000 [2]华北电力大学电气与电子工程学院,北京102206

出　　处：《中国电力》2025年第4期31-43,共13页Electric Power

基　　金：国网江苏省电力有限公司科技项目(J2023046)。

摘　　要：由于碳市场与电力市场交易的时序差异,电力市场与碳市场耦合模型的建模和仿真面临准确度不足的问题。通过对实际工况的分析发现,火电机组碳排放强度随机组负荷率而波动,为电碳市场实时耦合和精确化建模提供了研究基础。为此,建立了考虑差异化动态碳排放特性的多发电企业博弈的电力市场和碳市场双层均衡仿真模型,其中上层为发电企业决策模型,下层为电力市场和碳市场交易模型,并提出了一种结合其他行业互动的低碳优化机制,以进一步增强电力市场的协同效应。为求解该模型,提出了一种基于马尔科夫决策迭代的协同优化算法。基于IEEE 39节点的算例分析表明,动态碳排放强度模型能够体现电碳市场的实时耦合,在电碳市场中采用低碳优化机制使系统进一步降低5.42%的碳排放量,使其他行业经济流入电力行业4.79万元,提高了电力市场的经济效益和环境效益。Due to the timing differences between carbon market(CM)and electricity market(EM),accurately modeling their coupling is challenging.Analysis of operating data shows that the carbon emission intensity(CEI)of thermal units fluctuates with load rates,providing a foundation for real-time coupling and accurate modeling.This study develops a bi-level equilibrium simulation model with differentiated dynamic CEI in a multi-generator game framework.The upper level models generator decisions,while the lower level models EM and CM transactions.A low-carbon optimization mechanism(LCOM)involving interactions with other industries is proposed to enhance EM synergy.A Markov decision iterative optimal coordination algorithm(MDIOCA)is proposed to solve the model.Case studies based on the IEEE 39-bus system demonstrate that the dynamic CEI model enables realtime coupling of the EM and CM,achieving an additional 5.42%reduction in carbon emissions and facilitating an economic inflow of 47,900 CNY from other industries,thereby improving the economic and environmental performance of the EM.

关 键 词：电力市场 碳市场 碳排放强度 双层模型 马尔科夫决策 纳什均衡 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]