雷达反射率因子同化对云南一次降水过程模拟的影响  

Influence of Radar Reflectivity Factor Assimilation on Simulation of a Precipitation Process in Yunnan Province

作　　者：符睿[1,2] 张诚忠 陈新梅[1,2] 周建琴[4] 海云莎 齐大鹏[6] 李彦霖[7] FU Rui;ZHANG Chengzhong;CHEN Xinmei;ZHOU Jianqin;HAI Yunsha;QI Dapeng;LI Yanlin(Yunnan Institute of Meteorology Sciences,Kunming 650034,China;Research Center for Disastrous Weather over Hengduan Mountains&Low-Latitude Plateau,China Meteorological Administration,Kunming 650034,China;Guangzhou Institute of Tropical Marine and Meteorology/Guangdong Province Key Laboratory of Reginal Numerical Weather Prediction,CMA,Guangzhou 510640,China;Yunnan Provincial Climate Centre,Kunming 650034,China;Yunnan Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Kunming 650034,China;Guizhou Mountainous Meteorological Science Research Institute,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Provincial Meteorological Observatory,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]云南省气象科学研究所,昆明650034 [2]中国气象局横断山区(低纬高原)灾害性天气研究中心,昆明650034 [3]中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所/广东省区域数值天气预报重点实验室,广州510641 [4]云南省气候中心,昆明650034 [5]云南省气象台,昆明650034 [6]贵州省山地气象科学研究所,贵阳550002 [7]贵州省气象台,贵阳550002

出　　处：《高原山地气象研究》2025年第1期68-76,共9页Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research

基　　金：云南省科技厅重点项目(202203AC100005,202203AC100006);国家自然科学基金项目(42165004,42075013,42365001,U2142204);科技人才与平台计划(202405AC350093);云南省气象局科研项目(YZ202303)。

摘　　要：本文选取2019年7月23日云南地区降水过程,将C波段多普勒雷达反射率因子资料,通过云分析系统引入CMAGD数值模式,分析引入反射率因子资料对模式预报效果的影响。结果表明:(1)引入反射率因子后,能明显改善3 h内的降水强度预报,但对降水落区的改善不明显。(2)云水、霰、雨滴和云雪在前6 h增加明显,而云冰和水汽增加持续到第16 h。云冰在300 hPa、云雪在400 hPa、霰在500 hPa、水汽在600 hPa、云水和雨滴在700 hPa增量最显著。(3)600~500 hPa前12 h和300~100 hPa第12—21 h相对湿度增加2%~3%,850 hPa以下前9 h的相对湿度降低,且前3 h降低达5%。与水凝物类似,前3 h降水大值区与水凝物、相对湿度的大值区在空间上的对应关系并不十分吻合,这可能是水汽条件在此次降水过程中仅为背景作用所致。(4)降水较强的滇西南和滇东-滇东南区域,风场在引入反射率因子后表现为高层辐散、低层辐合,有利于降水发生。结合水凝物、相对湿度和风场的分析发现,此次降水过程的落区主要由局地抬升作用决定。Selecting the precipitation process in Yunnan on July 23,2019,introducing the C-band Doppler radar reflectivity factor data into the CMA-GD numerical model through a cloud analysis system,the impact of radar reflectivity factor assimilation on the model prediciton effect was analyzed.The results show that:(1)Introducing the reflectivity factor could significantly improve the prediction of precipitation intensity within 3 hours,but the improvement on precipitation areas was not significant.(2)Cloud water,graupel,raindrops,and cloud snow increased significantly in the first 6 hours,while cloud ice and water vapor continued to increase until the 16th hour.The most significant increases were observed:cloud ice at 300 hPa,cloud snow at 400 hPa,graupel at 500 hPa,water vapor at 600 hPa,and cloud water and raindrops at 700 hPa.(3)The relative humidity increased by 2%to 3%in the first 12 hours at 600~500 hPa,and from the 12th to 21st hour it creased by 2%to 3%at 300~100 hPa.The relative humidity decreased in the first 9 hours below 850 hPa,and decreased by 5%in the first 3 hours.Similar to water condensate,the spatial correspondence between the high value area of precipitation in the first 3 hours and the high value area of water condensate and relative humidity was not very consistent,which might be due to the fact that the water vapor condition was only caused by the background effect during the precipitation process.(4)In the southwest and eastsoutheast of Yunnan with strong precipitation,the wind field showed high-level divergence and low-level convergence after introducing the reflectivity factor,which was conducive to the occurrence of precipitation.The analysis of water condensate,relative humidity,and wind field revealed that the precipitation area in this event was mainly determined by local lupifting effects.

关 键 词：雷达反射率因子 同化 降水 模拟 

分 类 号：P435[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]