物流产业集聚对数字贸易发展的空间效应检验——基于中国30个省(区、市)面板数据  

Test of the Spatial Effect of Logistics Industry Agglomeration on the Development of Digital Trade:Based on Panel Data from 30 Provinces and Cities in China

作　　者：陈德慧[1] 桂钟利 CHEN Dehui;GUI Zhongli(School of Economics,Harbin University of Commerce,Harbin Heilongjiang 150028,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨商业大学经济学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150028

出　　处：《金融理论与教学》2025年第2期11-20,共10页Financial Theory and Teaching

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“统一大市场推动双循环新发展格局的双重逻辑与路径选择”(23BJY247);黑龙江省哲学社会科学专题项目“区域数字产业共建推动黑龙江省向北开放的机制与路径研究”(23GJA015)。

摘　　要：物流产业集聚为我国数字贸易发展带来新的机遇和挑战,但产业集聚的同质性放大了数字贸易市场风险传导和恶性竞争隐患。基于我国2013-2022年省级面板数据,结合熵值法构建数字贸易发展综合评价体系,建立空间杜宾模型和门槛效应模型实证研究物流产业集聚对数字贸易的影响。研究发现,我国物流产业集聚与数字贸易之间呈现出显著的空间相关性,数字贸易空间格局存在“H-H”(高-高)和“L-L”(低-低)的集聚特征;物流业集聚整体上会抑制本地区的数字贸易发展,同时人力资本对数字贸易发展的影响存在单门槛效应,当跨越门槛值后,对数字贸易的抑制作用缓解。区域异质性检验显示,在直接效应方面,物流产业集聚对东部地区数字贸易的抑制作用超过了中西部地区。The agglomeration of the logistics industry has brought new opportunities and challenges to the development of digital trade in China,but the homogeneity of industrial agglomeration has amplified the risk transmission and vicious competition in the digital trade market.Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022,a comprehensive evaluation system for the development of digital trade is constructed by combining the entropy value method,and the spatial Durbin model and threshold effect model are established to empirically study the impact of logistics industry agglomeration on digital trade.The results show that there is a significant spatial correlation between the agglomeration of China’s logistics industry and digital trade,and the spatial pattern of digital trade has the agglomeration characteristics of“H-H”(high-high)and“L-L”(low-low).The agglomeration of the logistics industry will inhibit the development of digital trade in the region as a whole,and the impact of human capital on the development of digital trade has a single threshold effect,and the inhibitory effect on digital trade will be alleviated when the threshold value is crossed.The regional heterogeneity test shows that in terms of direct effect,the inhibitory effect of logistics industry agglomeration on digital trade in the eastern region is greater than that of the central and western regions.

关 键 词：产业集聚 物流业 数字贸易 空间杜宾模型 门槛效应 

分 类 号：F724.6[经济管理—产业经济]