基于混合因果逻辑的智能井控应急风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Intelligent Well Control Emergency Based on Hybrid Causal Logic

作　　者：郑文培[1,2,3] 宋诗冉 周涛涛 唐成 魏军会 唐桃 ZHENG Wenpei;SONG Shiran;ZHOU Taotao;TANG Cheng;WEI Junhui;TANG Tao(College of Safety and Ocean Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing),Beijing 102249,China;Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Safety and Emergency Technology,Ministry of Emergency Management,Beijing 102249,China;Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Production Equipment Quality Inspection and Health Diagnosis,State Administration for Market Regulation,Beijing 102249,China;CNPC National Oil and Gas Drilling Equipment Engineering Technology Research Center,Baoji,Shaanxi 721000,China;PetroChina Tarim Oilfield Company,Korla,Xinjiang 841000,China;CCDC Safety,Environment,Quality Supervision&Testing Research Institute,Guanghan,Sichuan 618000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)安全与海洋工程学院,北京市102299 [2]应急管理部油气生产安全与应急技术重点实验室 [3]国家市场监督管理总局重点实验室(油气生产装备质量检测与健康诊断) [4]中油国家油气钻井装备工程技术研究中心 [5]中国石油塔里木油田公司 [6]中国石油川庆钻探工程有限公司安全环保质量监督检测研究院

出　　处：《钻采工艺》2025年第2期58-65,共8页Drilling & Production Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划“陆上超深油气井井喷防控关键技术装备及示范应用”(编号:2023YFC3009203);国家自然科学基金青年项目“面向油气生产系统动态风险智能管控的设备健康可信感知方法研究”(编号:72301294);中国石油大学(北京)科研启动基金项目“油气生产安全风险智能管控方法研究”(编号:2462023BJRC016)。

摘　　要：井口溢流应急响应是井控工作的关键,涉及复杂的人员、程序和装备动态交互,若应急响应不及时,溢流可能演变为井喷,导致灾难性事故。文章提出了一种基于混合因果逻辑的溢流应急响应风险分析方法,该方法以高压采气井口溢流的智能井控系统及人员应急响应为研究对象,构建事件序列图模型,通过故障树分析关键事件的失效,并用贝叶斯网络表征各基本事件的动态交互,进行风险分析。分析结果表明,高压采气井口溢流应急响应失效的频率0.00683/(井次·10^(4)m),失效节点是未及时发出停止作业及立即关井警报,其中人员作业的不确定性是造成响应失败的主要原因。使用基于混合因果逻辑的智能井控应急风险分析方法,可以实现对应急流程中多因素的动态交互进行全面量化分析,为井控工作提供指导。The overflow emergency response is critical to well control and involves a complex dynamic interaction of personnel,procedures and equipment.If the emergency response is not timely,the overflow may evolve into a blowout,leading to a catastrophic accident.A risk analysis method based on hybrid causal logic(HCL)for overflow emergency response is proposed.Taking the intelligent well control system and personnel emergency response for high-pressure gas extraction wellhead overflow as the research object,an event sequence diagram model is constructed,the failure of key events analyzed through a fault tree,and a Bayesian network used to characterize the dynamic interactions of each basic event for risk analysis.The analysis results show that the frequency of failure of emergency response to high-pressure gas extraction wellhead overflow is 0.006,83/(wells·10,000 m),and the failure point is the failure to issue the alarm of stopping operation and shutting down the wells immediately in time,in which the uncertainty of personnel's operation is the main reason of the failure of response.Using the intelligent well control emergency risk analysis method based on mixed causal logic,a comprehensive quantitative analysis of the dynamic interaction of multiple factors in the emergency response process can be realized to provide guidance for well control.

关 键 词：溢流 井口控制 应急响应 混合因果逻辑 风险分析 

分 类 号：TE358[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]