经济理性、惠台政策与台胞登陆意愿研究  

Economic Rationality,Huitai(Benefiting Taiwan)Policies,and Taiwan CompatriotsWillingness to Settle in the Mainland

作　　者：肖日葵[1] 柳小琴 XIAO Rikui;LIU Xiaoqin

机构地区：[1]厦门大学台湾研究院,福建厦门361005 [2]重庆工商大学法学与社会学学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《台湾研究集刊》2025年第2期57-74,共18页Taiwan Research Journal

基　　金：2022年度国家社科基金一般项目“国家治理视角下深化两岸融合发展路径研究”(22BZZ083)。

摘　　要：两岸人员往来是两岸关系和平发展的重要特征。台胞到内地(“登陆”)发展是一种特殊人口流动现象,影响台胞到内地发展的因素值得关注。在人口学变量、经济利益等影响因素外,有必要引入移民政治理论分析内地惠台政策、政党认同对台胞登陆意愿的影响。研究发现:年龄、阶层对台胞登陆意愿产生显著影响,30岁及以下青年群体比31—50岁的中年群体登陆意愿更强,主观阶层认同为中层的台胞比中下层更愿意登陆;认为两岸关系发展给自己带来正向影响,对惠台政策越了解,认为惠台政策是善意的台胞越有可能登陆。这表明,经济理性和惠台政策效应是影响台胞到内地发展意愿的双重逻辑,内地惠台政策的包容性和发展性是促成台胞登陆发展的重要影响因素。移民政治理论对两岸人口流动具有较强的解释力。Cross-Strait population movement is an important feature of the peaceful development of cross-Strait relations.The“landing”of Taiwan compatriots in the mainland is a unique phenomenon of population movement,and the factors influencing their development merit discussion.This study examines micro-level demographic and economic factors while also incorporating a migration politics perspective to explore macro-level political influences—specifically,the impact of huitai policies and political party identification on the willingness of Taiwan compatriots to settle in the mainland.Based on the 2018 survey data and using a binary logistic regression statistical model,this study reveals that age and social class significantly impact Taiwan compatriotswillingness.Individuals aged 30 and below exhibit stronger intentions to settle compared to those aged 31-50,while Taiwan compatriots identifying as middle-class are more inclined to migrate than those in lower socioeconomic strata.Additionally,perceptions of cross-Strait relationspositive impact,awareness of huitai policies,and the belief that such policies are well-intentioned correlate strongly with settlement intentions.This underscores a dual logic of economic relationality and policy efficacy:the inclusiveness and developmental nature of the mainland's huitai policies are important drivers of Taiwan compatriotswillingness to settle.Migration political theory thus provides strong explanatory power for cross-Strait population movement.

关 键 词：登陆意愿 经济理性 惠台政策 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]