印度对华“对冲”逻辑辨析——基于新古典现实主义视角  

Assessing India's "Hedging" Logic towards China:A Neo-Classical Realist Perspective

作　　者：黄云松[1] 李林杰 Huang Yunsong;Li Linjie

机构地区：[1]四川大学南亚研究所/国际关系学院 [2]四川大学国际关系学院 [3]四川大学四川省台湾研究中心

出　　处：《南亚研究》2025年第1期1-23,157,共24页South Asian Studies

摘　　要：本文依据新古典现实主义理论讨论国家行为体“对冲”动机,通过国际与国内跨层次分析推演出国家行为体的“对冲”逻辑和策略选择。针对印度对华“对冲”,本文借助新古典现实主义的“对冲”逻辑,以“国际体系变量”信号传递不一致为前提,认为印度“对冲”逻辑的达成是其“国内结构变量”中“非友好致胜联盟”与“印度领导者认知与偏好”对冲的结果。总体上看在对冲、跟随与抗衡三种策略选项中,印度采取对华“对冲”的策略是中国尚能接受的次优选项,而在印度依然将中印之间的实力分布与权力趋势视为威胁且印度国内社会关系中仍然存在对华非友好致胜联盟的情境下,对冲的策略选项反而是对中国而言的最优解。引入印度对冲逻辑的讨论也对如何稳定中印关系的基本面有所启示。一方面,要重视中俄印与中美印两对大国三角关系所提供的战略回旋空间;另一方面,要尝试将两国之间的功能性合作与莫迪政府的经济意识形态相对接,要与莫迪政府的选举利益相联系。This article draws on neo-classical realist theories to understand the motivations behind the "hedging" strategies deployed by state actors.The article extends multi-dimensional analysis of international and domestic factors to articulate the "hedging" logic and relevant strategic choices of state actors.Focusing on India's "hedging" vis-à-vis China,the article draws on neo-classical realist theories of "hedging",which are premised on the inconsistent signaling with regard to "international system level variables".The article argues that India's "hedging" logic is the result of a balancing act between a "non-friendly winning coalition" at the "domestic structural level" and the "perceptions and preferences of India's leaders".On the whole,of the three strategic options that India maintains vis-à-vis China,namely hedging,bandwagoning and balancing,India's adoption of a "hedging" strategy is the second-best scenario from China's vantage point.However,under the circumstances where India regards the distribution of power and power dynamics between China and India as a threat,and insofar as India's domestic winning coalition is unfriendly towards China,the hedging strategy is the optimal for China.A discussion of India's hedging logic sheds light on means of stabilizing the China-India relationship.On the one hand,we must pay attention to the space for strategic maneuvering provided by two sets of triangular relationships between great powers,namely China-Russia-India and China-US-India;on the other hand,we must try to connect the functional cooperation between the two countries with the economic ideology of the Modi government and with the Modi government's electoral interests.

关 键 词：印度 对冲 新古典现实主义 中印关系 

分 类 号：D822.3[政治法律—政治学]