动态结构差异视角下的中国人口低生育水平再析  

Reassessing China's Low Fertility:A Perspective on Dynamic Structural Differences

作　　者：李建新 盛禾 Li Jianxin;Sheng He

机构地区：[1]北京大学中国社会与发展研究中心、社会学系 [2]北京大学社会学系

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2025年第2期12-28,共17页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国人口长期均衡发展关键问题研究”(编号:22JJD840001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：低生育水平是一个复杂且多维的现实问题。文章基于人口学框架对中国低生育水平进行再分析,重点强调了影响人口生育水平的3个递进嵌套式条件:是否为育龄妇女、是否结婚和婚内是否生育。中国适龄生育女性人口减少且育龄妇女年龄结构趋向老化是低生育水平的直接原因;进入婚姻的时间逐渐推迟或无法进入婚姻将减少生育的可能;即使进入婚姻但不生育也会降低生育水平。文章采用动态结构差异视角,结合以上三要素对人口出生率进行标准化分解,发现近十年来已婚育龄妇女比例的下降对出生率的负向影响最大,育龄妇女规模与结构的抑制作用增强,婚内生育率的作用由正转负。文章在对三要素未来变动趋势进行假设的基础上,预测了2021~2035年中国人口的出生规模和出生率,以期全面系统地认识低生育水平现象,引导政策针对性地对症下药。Low fertility is a multifaceted issue and this paper proposes a demographic framework to reexamine low fertility in China.Fertility behavior is achieved through three nested conditions:women of childbearing age,entry into marriage,and childbearing within marriage.The sharp decline and the aging of women of childbearing age are direct causes of low fertility.Delayed and less accessible marriage further reduces fertility potential.Even entering marriage but not having children reduces fertility.Based on the perspective of dynamic structural differences,this study standardizes and decomposes crude birth rates using three key factors.The findings reveal that the decline in the proportion of married women has the greatest suppressive effect on fertility in recent ten years,the inhibitory impact of the size and structure of the childbearing-age women is intensifying,and the effect of marital fertility rates has shifted from positive to negative.The paper also hypothesizes future trends in these three factors and projects China's birth numbers and birth rates for 2021-2035,aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of low fertility and inform targeted policy interventions.

关 键 词：低生育水平 动态结构差异 因素分解 人口预测 

分 类 号：C924.2[社会学—人口学]